鑑別並量化台灣資訊電子工業之重大性氣候風險

Abstract

IPCCAR6報告發布後，人為引致氣候變遷的確定性升高，氣候變遷對企業帶來的風險卻愈發不確定，並影響全球金融穩定，其中的關鍵點為氣候變遷各面向資訊的缺乏，尤其是氣候風險的鑑別。台灣資訊電子工業以出口為主，且該行業為全球近年來的重大產業，台灣在其中為關鍵角色。然而，缺乏氣候風險對台灣企業的影響的實證研究，資訊電子產業面臨的氣候風險仍不明確。現行全球用來進行氣候相關財務揭露的TCFD雖提供實體和轉型風險的列表，但應用性及細緻度不足，無法反映台灣企業面臨的氣候風險。即便是依循TCFD建立的最新的永續性框架，IFRS S2，也提及各單位需要自行鑑別更具體的氣候風險。已有許多文獻證明，TCFD為新穎的研究領域，幾乎所有所需的研究都是缺乏的，其中更是少有針對企業如何實施TCFD的「策略」核心的研究。而「策略」中的氣候風險鑑別的缺乏更是導致後續氣候風險管理障礙的肇因。企業的氣候情境分析的質與量受限於，其所依賴的顧問及使用工具和揭露方式，故整合不同企業的氣候風險評估結果有助於全盤釐清氣候風險事件。本研究依照氣候情境分析的架構，將TCFD對於氣候風險的類型、項目、事件層級化後，著重關注氣候風險事件的鑑別以及重大性排序。本研究採用了質性和量化的研究方法，使用主題內容分析法，分析台灣企業共191份TCFD質性內容，並歸納出49個氣候風險事件。這些歸納出的風險事件擴充原有TCFD氣候風險列表。接著，使用層級分析法讓專家針對這些氣候風險事件對資訊電子產業的「營運衝擊程度」及「發生可能性」進行評估。最後，運用IPCC氣候風險定義，結合脆弱性維度，對風險事件量化後進行重大性排序。此兩種研究方法的使用，在不偏離企業永續實務的工作模式，又兼具學術的嚴謹性，是為本研究的重要價值之一。本研究之結果驗證學術文獻對於短期實體風險之主導地位的看法，而台灣的資訊電子業也有著相同現象，建議未來研究者專注於探討轉型風險的相關議題。在風險揭露不足的情況下，風險脆弱度難以有效降低，同時也弱化氣候風險管理。本研究填補了TCFD策略面向的學術空白，而研究結果的發現，有助於深化金融監管機構、氣候相關研究單位、企業以及永續顧問業和金融相關單位對TCFD框架下的氣候風險的理解及增進資訊交換。這不僅縮小各方對TCFD的誤用和知識落差，此外，此研究也為未來在台灣資訊電子業中建立氣候情境分析及氣候財務衝擊模型提供了基礎。Following the release of the IPCC AR6 report, there is growing certainty of human-induced climate change. However, the risks posed by climate change to corporations have become increasingly uncertain, affecting global financial stability. This uncertainty is largely due to the lack of information on various aspects of climate change, especially the identification of climate risks. Taiwan's information electronics industry, a significant global player in recent years, primarily relies on exports. However, there is a dearth of empirical research on the impact of climate risk on Taiwanese corporations, rendering the climate risks faced by the information electronics industry ambiguous. Although the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) offers a list of physical and transition risks, its applicability and granularity are insufficient to reflect the climate risks faced by Taiwanese corporations. Even the latest sustainability framework established in accordance with TCFD, the IFRS S2, mentions that individual units need to independently identify more specific climate risks.Extant literature underscores that TCFD is a novel research domain where almost all necessary research is lacking, particularly studies on the core strategy of how corporations implement TCFD. The absence of identification of climate risks in this strategy further impedes subsequent climate risk management. The quality and quantity of corporate climate scenario analyses are constrained by the consulting services they rely on, the tools they use, and the way they disclose information. Therefore, integrating the climate risk assessment results of different corporations can help clarify the full picture of climate risk events.This study follows the framework of climate scenario analysis and categorizes the types, items, and event levels of climate risks according to TCFD. It focuses on identifying and prioritizing significant climate risk events. This study employs qualitative and quantitative research methods, using thematic content analysis to analyze 191 TCFD qualitative content from Taiwanese corporations and summarize 49 climate risk events. These summarized risk events expand the original TCFD climate risk list. Then, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is utilized to allow experts to evaluate the operational impact and likelihood of these climate risk events in the information electronics industry. Finally, combining the vulnerability dimension with the definition of climate risk from the IPCC, a prioritization of risk events is conducted after quantification. The use of these two research methods, which align with practices of corporation sustainability while maintaining academic rigor, is one of the important values of this study.The results of this study corroborate academic literature's view on the dominance of short-term physical risks, a phenomenon also observed in Taiwan's information electronics industry. Future researchers are recommended to focus on exploring issues related to transition risks. In situations where risk disclosure is insufficient, it's difficult to effectively reduce risk vulnerability, which in turn weakens climate risk management. This study fills the academic gap in TCFD strategy and its findings contribute to a deeper understanding of climate risksunder the TCFD framework by financial regulatory agencies, climate-related research units, corporations, sustainability consulting firms, and financial-related units, enhancing information exchange. This not only reduces misuse of the TCFD and knowledge disparity among stakeholders, but also lays the foundation for establishing climate scenario analyses and climate financial impact models in Taiwan's information electronics industry in the future.