再探災後重建的韌性與脆弱性—以臺灣莫拉克颱風受災戶的長期資料分析為例

Abstract

根據過去諸多研究，顯示災後受災居民的居住安置會影響個體的災後復原，相關文獻除檢驗住宅重建對災後復原的影響之外，也提出受災戶的社會脆弱度與社會資本會影響災後復原。本研究以莫拉克安遷戶為樣本，為使用災後一年（2010年）、災後二年（2011年）、災後三年（2012年）、災後六年（2015年）和災後十年（2019年）的長期資料分析研究，以災後復原作為後果變量，使用隨機效果模型進行資料分析。研究結果呈現在控制干擾因素後，災後住宅重建形式與災後復原有顯著相關，社會脆弱性和社會資本會顯著影響災後復原。執行災後重建的過程中，永久屋在受災戶災後復原效果表現上扮演相當重要的角色。社會脆弱性顯著影響災後復原的家庭所得、恢復作息與生活滿意度等三構面。社會資本主要影響災後復原的生活滿意度，與過去研究的差異展現出社會資本的效果需要時間累積。

According to past studies, the resettlement of disaster-affected households will affect post-disaster recovery. This study adopts a prospective follow-up research design, taking Morakot resettlement households as a sample, in addition to examining the impact of housing reconstruction on post-disaster recovery, it also proposes that the social vulnerability and social capital of disaster-affected households will affect post-disaster recovery. This study is a long-term data analysis study using the data after the disaster, using post-disaster recovery as the outcome variable, and using a random effect model for data analysis. After confounding factors adjustment, post-disaster housing reconstruction is significantly correlated with post-disaster recovery, social vulnerability is significantly correlated with post-disaster recovery, and social capital is significantly correlated with post-disaster recovery. Permanent housing plays a very important role in the process of post-disaster reconstruction. The impact of social vulnerability factors on post-disaster recovery is supported by the three dimensions of family income, resume routine, and life satisfaction. Social capital will affect the post-disaster recovery situation, which is supported by the aspect of life satisfaction. The difference with previous research shows that the effect of social capital needs time to accumulate.