從新現實主義檢視菲律賓在南海角色

Abstract

南海是一個涉及多個國家和地區的極其重要的海域，其地緣政治的重要性不言而喻，而南海的戰略位置、豐富的資源以及領土爭端，使得該區域成為國際關係和安全的焦點。本研究以新現實主義為理論基礎，檢視菲律賓在南海的角色與行為。研究旨在探討菲律賓在地緣政治複雜的南海地區中的外交政策、策略行動，以及與主要國際行為者（如美國、中國）之間的互動。研究方法主要包括文獻分析和案例研究，透過分析相關學術文獻與具體事件來評估菲律賓政策演變的動力及影響因素。研究顯示，菲律賓的南海政策受多重因素影響，包括地緣政治的壓力、國際法的運用及與美國的盟友關係等。菲律賓透過外交、軍事、法律等多元手段，試圖平衡在中美之間的壓力，保護自身利益。此外，菲律賓的政策在不同領導人時期有所轉變，反映其靈活應對地區安全局勢變化的需求。菲律賓應繼續深化與區域內外盟友的合作，透過多邊對話平台增強其在南海的戰略地位，並保持靈活政策以應對動態的地緣政治環境。本研究的學術貢獻首先在於運用新現實主義理論基礎來檢視中等國家的行為模式。其次，系統性分析菲律賓南海政策，補充有關東南亞地區地緣政治的研究空白。第三，深入理解國家如何在大國競爭環境中進行戰略平衡的，尤其是中小國在面對複雜國際壓力時的政策選擇，近一步豐富國際關係理論中有關權力平衡的討論。未來的研究可進一步探討菲律賓如何在美中競爭中尋求更有利的地位，並分析其政策變化對地區穩定的影響。The South China Sea is an extremely important maritime region involving multiple countries and regions, with undeniable geopolitical significance. Its strategic location, abundant resources, and territorial disputes make the area a focal point for international relations and security. This study, grounded in neorealism, examines the role and behavior of the Philippines in the South China Sea. The research aims to explore the diplomatic policies, strategic actions of the Philippines in the geopolitically complex South China Sea, and its interactions with major international actors such as the United States and China. The research methods primarily include literature analysis and case studies, evaluating the driving forces and influencing factors behind the evolution of Philippine policies by analyzing relevant academic literature and specific events.The findings reveal that the Philippines' South China Sea policy is influenced by multiple factors, including geopolitical pressures, the application of international law, and its alliance relationship with the United States. The Philippines has employed various means, such as diplomacy, military actions, and legal measures, to balance pressures between China and the United States, thereby safeguarding its own interests. Moreover, Philippine policy has shifted across different leadership periods, reflecting the need for flexible responses to changing regional security dynamics. The study suggests that the Philippines should continue to deepen cooperation with regional and extraregional allies, strengthen its strategic position in the South China Sea through multilateral dialogue platforms, and maintain flexible policies to respond to the dynamic geopolitical environment.The academic contribution of this study lies primarily in utilizing the theoretical foundation of neorealism to examine the behavioral patterns of middle powers. Secondly, the study offers a systematic analysis of the Philippines' South China Sea policy, addressing gaps in research concerning Southeast Asian geopolitics. Thirdly, it provides an in-depth understanding of how states strategically balance under great power competition, especially regarding the policy choices of small and medium-sized countries in the face of complex international pressures, thus enriching discussions on power balancing within international relations theory. Future research can further explore how the Philippines seeks a more favorable position amidst U.S.-China competition and analyze the implications of its policy changes on regional stability.