美中貿易關係與新冠肺炎疫情對臺灣半導體產業供應鏈績效之影響
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2022
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美中貿易衝突與新冠肺炎為 2020 年前後影響全球經濟甚深的事件，全球的供應鏈秩序也出現新的變局，其中被我國列為經濟重要發展產業的半導體事業更是在美中貿易衝突與新冠肺炎兩個黑天鵝事件下，成為兵家重視之產業。本研究希望透過績效分析中的杜邦分析法來進行分析，在美中貿易衝突下或是新冠肺炎疫情下，臺灣半導體產業績效是否被其影響而有績效上的影響。分析方式主要運用迴歸分析方式比對在事件前後的企業績效是否有顯著上的差異，並試圖探究造成差異的因素為何。
結果顯示在進行分析過後，可以得出以下結論：一、美中貿易衝突事件並無法對在中國方面的績效造成顯著影響；二、新冠肺炎事件對於全球或是中國方面的績效皆無顯著影響；三、企業年齡作為干擾變數對於全球或是中國方面的績效皆無顯著影響；四、企業規模作為控制變數在新冠肺炎事件時，對全球與中國方面的績效皆有顯著影響。
在美中貿易衝突與新冠肺炎的影響下，且在觀察無論是全球或臺灣所面臨的嚴峻環境，如因隔離造成的停工、電子需求倍增造成的斷料又或者是民眾消費緊縮等現象會使得我國的半導體產業會有衰退的現象出現。但就統計結果可以得知，無論是在美中貿易衝突下，又或者是新冠肺炎疫情的影響，對於我國半導體業的績效並無顯著造成衰退的現象出現，甚至還出現績效更好的情形。研究意涵包括了在美中貿易衝突中臺灣可能意外獲得轉單效應，使得我國相關產業的績效獲得正向成長；而新冠肺炎疫情則加速的電子通訊產品的需求，使得晶片相關需求獲得大幅度的提升，在半導體產業完整的臺灣自然能夠在疫情之中獲得相關利益。
The US-China trade conflict and COVID-19 pandemic are the events that have deeply affected the global economy around 2020, and the global supply chain order has also undergone new changes. This research aims to analyze whether the performance of Taiwan's semiconductor industry is affected by the US-China trade conflict or the COVID-19 pandemic through the DuPont analysis in the performance analysis. The analysis uses regression analysis to compare whether there is a significant difference in the performance of companies before and after the respective events, and to try to answer the questions of what factors caused the difference. The following conclusions can be drawn from the data analysis: 1) The US-China trade conflict and the COVID-19 pandemic did not have a significant impact on the performance of Taiwan semiconductor companies in China; 2) The COVID-19 pandemic did not have a significant impact on firm performance of either global or China; 3) Firm age as a moderate did not have a significant impact on firm performance of either global or China; 4) Firm size as a control variable had a positive and significant impact on firm performance of the COVID-19 pandemic.Under the overlap of the US-China trade conflict and the COVID-19 pandemic, and when observing the severe environment faced by the world and Taiwan, such as the shutdown caused by isolation, the shortage of materials due to the increased electronic demand, or the public consumption constraint, there should be a recession in the semiconductor industry in Taiwan. However, the statistical results show that firm performance of Taiwan's semiconductor industry has not been negatively affected by the US-China trade conflict or the COVID-19 pandemic but has even shown better firm performance. Due to the US-China trade conflict, the result may imply that Taiwan has received unexpected switching benefits, which led to positive growth in firm performance of Taiwan's related industries; while the COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the demand for electronic communication products, resulting in a significant increase in demand for wafer-related products. The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the demand for electronic communication products, which led to a significant increase in demand for chips.
The US-China trade conflict and COVID-19 pandemic are the events that have deeply affected the global economy around 2020, and the global supply chain order has also undergone new changes. This research aims to analyze whether the performance of Taiwan's semiconductor industry is affected by the US-China trade conflict or the COVID-19 pandemic through the DuPont analysis in the performance analysis. The analysis uses regression analysis to compare whether there is a significant difference in the performance of companies before and after the respective events, and to try to answer the questions of what factors caused the difference. The following conclusions can be drawn from the data analysis: 1) The US-China trade conflict and the COVID-19 pandemic did not have a significant impact on the performance of Taiwan semiconductor companies in China; 2) The COVID-19 pandemic did not have a significant impact on firm performance of either global or China; 3) Firm age as a moderate did not have a significant impact on firm performance of either global or China; 4) Firm size as a control variable had a positive and significant impact on firm performance of the COVID-19 pandemic.Under the overlap of the US-China trade conflict and the COVID-19 pandemic, and when observing the severe environment faced by the world and Taiwan, such as the shutdown caused by isolation, the shortage of materials due to the increased electronic demand, or the public consumption constraint, there should be a recession in the semiconductor industry in Taiwan. However, the statistical results show that firm performance of Taiwan's semiconductor industry has not been negatively affected by the US-China trade conflict or the COVID-19 pandemic but has even shown better firm performance. Due to the US-China trade conflict, the result may imply that Taiwan has received unexpected switching benefits, which led to positive growth in firm performance of Taiwan's related industries; while the COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the demand for electronic communication products, resulting in a significant increase in demand for wafer-related products. The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the demand for electronic communication products, which led to a significant increase in demand for chips.
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貿易衝突, 新冠肺炎, 企業績效, 半導體產業, Trade Conflict, COVID-19, Firm Performance, Semiconductor