緬甸政治體制變遷：民主化動因分析（1948-2022）

Abstract

本文旨在探討緬甸政治體制的變遷軌跡並分析各時期的民主化動因。依循緬甸歷史脈絡，本研究有兩大主軸：其一為緬甸體制的研究，描述緬甸各個時期的政治、社會及經濟狀況，以及體制的判別與變動方向。其二為緬甸民主化動力的分析，以內部動力、外部動力與內、外交互作用的民主化動因分析架構為基礎，分析緬甸各時期在國內與國外分別有何種因素對於民主轉型產生正面或負面的影響。緬甸軍方自1962年起便在緬甸政治中佔有一席之地，即使歷經改革派的當道與翁山蘇姬政府的上台，深根在制度中的特權也無法有所改變。根據本文的觀察，緬甸政治制度的改變軌跡為「民主—威權—混合—威權」。而民主化動因分析結果顯示，內部動力受到軍方對於國家掌控的影響難有發揮，僅在登盛政府實施改革開放後有所發展，其中公民社會的力量得以延續到政變之後；外部動力在國際環境、各國利益與軍方政策選擇下，對民主轉型的作用亦相當有限。綜觀緬甸政治，能對外交政策發揮影響力的主要行為者為軍方，次要行為者為翁山蘇姬，雖然翁山蘇姬曾擔任過執政菁英，但懼於軍方握有的權力，仍基本依照軍方的決策模式來與各國進行交流，軍方仍是緬甸政治的主導者。

This study investigates the change of political regime in Myanmar from 1948 to 2022 and the democratization dynamics during each period. Based on the history in Myanmar, this thesis explores the changes in political, social, and economical aspects and analyzes whether the internal factors and the external factors work in Myanmar.The military has played an important part in Myanmar’s politics since 1962. Even if under the governments led by the reformist Thein Sein and democrats Aung San Suu Kyi, the military’s privilege embedded in constitutional system still exists. This thesis suggests that the course of Myanmar’s political regime is “democracy – authoritarian – hybrid – authoritarian.”As for the results of democratization dynamics analysis, the internal factors were limited by the military’s overall control of society during the authoritarian period and started to increase under Thein Sein’ reforms. Among the internal factors, the power of civil society is the only one that can last after the coup. And the external factors are restricted by the international politics, geopolitical interests, and the policies made by the military. In Myanmar, the main actor of decision making is the military. The military has governed Myanmar for a long time and remains great power when Aung San Suu Kyi leads the government, making it hard to take actions without considering military’s idea.