職業網球選手Djokovic與Federer對戰各階段得分之比較研究

Abstract

前言：在2011年表現最突出的表現人物Novak Djokovic（喬柯維奇）在硬地球場上連續獲勝Roger Federer四次的選手，並在2011年登上世界第一的選手。目的：主要探討Djokovic在2011年與2010年在發球局、接發球局、保發球局、破發球局及關鍵分表現比較各階段得分比較研究。方法：觀看統計2010年與2011年兩年Djokovic對戰Federer在硬地的比賽，以分析兩年對戰在發球局與接發球局各階段得分比較研究。結果：（一）、在發球直接得分率從2010年22%增加到2011年29%有很明顯的提升：Federer在前三拍失分從26%增加到24%。（二）、在接發球局Djokovic回擊帶入對抽由2010年16%增加到了2011年24%：Federer接發失誤從29%增加到34%。（三）、Djokovic保發球局平均發球直接得分1分到2011年提升到1.3分，Federer保發球局平均發球直接得分2010年1.2分到2011年下滑到1.3分。（四）、Djokovic發球面臨破發點時發球直接得分在2010年2到2011年增加到9，Djokovic接發球面臨破發點時降低回擊失誤的方式來增加回擊成功率。結論：（一）、頂尖選手對戰中發球直接得分占了很大勝負關鍵，贏球要有更強勢更精準的發球，讓發球後減少接拍次數與增加成功率。（二）、接發球要有能持續回擊對方發球的能力，不僅是提升回擊成功率還要增加回擊時候的效果，讓對手無發在發球後容易搶到優勢。（三）、Djokovic在面對Federer時每局的發球直接得分有1分才能保住發球局， Federer在面對Djokovic時每局的發球直接得分有1.2分才能保住發球局。ExcerptPreface: Novak Djokovic, the most remarkable player in 2011, has achieved a straight four triumphs over Roger Federer on hard court matches and reached the No. 1 ranking in the world.Objective: This paper is a comparison analysis about Djokovic's scoring performance in 2010 and 2011, including service games holding, return games, break points and match points wining ability.Method: Compile the statistics of the matches between Djokovic and Federer on hard court in 2010 and 2011, and analyze their scoring performance on service and return games. Results: (1) Djokovic has improved his rate of unreturned serve point evidently from 22% in 2010 to 29% in 2011, whereas the rate of losing point in first-3 rally of Federer has increased from 26% to 24%. (2) In receiving games, Djokovic’s return-and-rally performance has improved from 16% to 24%, while the losing-point rate in serve returning of Federer has increased from 29% to 34%. (3) In service games, the average rate of ace of Djokovic has promoted from 1 to 1.3, while Federer’s has dropped from 1.2 to 1.3. (4) While facing break points in his service game, the rate of ace of Djokovic has improved from 2 in 2010 to 9 in 2011. Also, Djokovic has reduced his errors in return games so as to improve the rate of successful returns. Conclusion: (1) Ace plays a significant role in matches between top tennis players. In order to reduce the frequency of rally and increase one’s scoring performance, one must possess dominance and accuracy in serves. (2) One must be able to return serves steadily. Furthermore, one has to enhance returns so that the opponent gets less advantage from serves. (3) Djokovic needs to win more than 1.03 points by unreturned serve per game to hold his service game against Federer. And Federer has to win more than 1.22 points by unreturned serve per game to hold his service game.