「瀾湄合作」對於中國的意義與影響之研究

Abstract

本研究探討了「瀾湄合作」運作至2018年2月的主要項目合作成果，以及將「瀾湄合作」與其他湄公河流域合作機制進行比較。主要是為了探討中國成立「瀾湄合作」的目的為何、「瀾湄合作」的特別之處和實際執行成果為何，以及其主要的競爭者和未來可能遇到的困難為何。 根據本文的研究成果，中國成立「瀾湄合作」的目的除了要補足湄公河委員會、大湄公河次區域經濟合作計畫和東協－湄公河盆地開發合作的不足之外，中國也將「瀾湄合作」視為執行「一帶一路」倡議以及能與東協關係更密切的切入點，此外更透過「瀾湄合作」大力推動公共外交，要促進與湄公河流域國家的人民有進一步的互動，達到「民心相通」的目標，進而增加自身在湄公河流域國家的影響力，以及稀釋日本和美國在該地區的影響力。 然而，日本是目前在湄公河流域國家投入最多時間和金錢的區域外國家，且「瀾湄合作」主要的合作項目與日本所主導的大湄公河次區域經濟合作計畫、日本－湄公河流域高峰會議所執行的合作項目十分類似，再加上「瀾湄合作」推動合作項目的方式是零星以及較無整體規劃，且仍以雙邊互動為主，因此究竟中國是否能藉由「瀾湄合作」提升自身在該地區的影響力，進而抗衡美國和日本在當地的作為與勢力，其效果可能是有限的。This study delves into what “Lancang-Mekong Cooperation” has done from its foundation to February 2018 and compares it with other cooperation mechanisms in Mekong River countries in order to explore the reasons why China set up “Lancang-Mekong Cooperation”, the uniquess and the actual execution of it as well as which country the main competitor of China would be. According to the conclusions of the research, this study suggests that the reasons why China set up “Lancang-Mekong Cooperation” are because China wants to supplement to the insufficiency of other cooperation mechanisms, and because China regards “Lancang-Mekong Cooperation” as the tool to enforce “the Belt and Road Initiative” and as the point to make China and ASEAN closer. In addition, China uses “Lancang-Mekong Cooperation” to promote its public diplomacy to enhance its influence and at the same time reduce the influence of Japan and the USA in Mekong River countries. Japan is the country which has invested time and money the most in Mekong River countries, and the projects in “Lancang-Mekong Cooperation” are very similar to those in Mekong - Japan Summit and those in Greater Mekong Subregion Economic Cooperation Program whose dominant player has been Japan. What’s more, the way of “Lancang-Mekong Cooperation” executes its projects is relatively systemless and focuses on bilateral cooperation; therefore, this study suggests that the effect of China’s action and ambition in Mekong River countries would be limited.