中華職棒競爭平衡之研究
Abstract
職業運動聯盟最重要的目標之一乃在提供球迷精彩刺激的比賽，即維持聯盟的競爭平衡（competitive balance）。雖然球迷希望支持的球隊場場獲勝，但他們享受的是未知比賽結果帶來的樂趣。如果職業聯盟缺乏競爭平衡，其比賽結果便能預測且不再有趣，長期來說聯盟更可能會遭遇球迷逐漸流失的危機。本研究以戰績標準差R值、競爭平衡係數、排名轉換機率與HHI指數來衡量中華職棒大聯盟1990~2005年來的競爭平衡狀況後發現：1993~1996年中華職棒競爭平衡下降，1997~2002年競爭平衡上升，但2003~2005年競爭平衡再次下滑，符合Fort＆Lee（2006）認為新球隊加盟會導致競爭平衡下滑。1990~2005年中華職棒的球隊排名不易變化，以6支球隊而言，平均每年僅會有一支球隊從排名後半升至前半。同時期的HHI指數也高於其他美國職業運動，顯示雖然球隊之間的戰績差距不大，但少數球隊掌握總冠軍。在影響競爭平衡之因素上發現：反向新人選秀制度因實施的時間過短，並無法證明其是否能幫助中華職棒的競爭平衡。另外中華職棒均分電視轉播權利金之制度因球員的流動性極低、球隊老闆以追求獲利為目的以及並未將所有收入都納入分配制度而無法證明該制度可幫助中華職棒的競爭平衡。最後分析1990~1996年中華職棒競爭平衡與觀眾人數之關係後發現：中華職棒的觀眾人數受到兄弟象隊戰績、季賽結果的不確定性（GU）與晉級季後賽的不確定性（PU）影響，但並不受國民所得、門票價格以及有無電視轉播影響。兄弟象隊戰績越好、季賽結果的不確定性（GU）與晉級季後賽的不確定性（PU）越低，平均進場的觀眾人數會越多。同時1994~1996年兄弟象隊的戰績不佳與競爭趨向失衡導致觀眾人數下滑。
關鍵字：中華職棒、運動經濟學、競爭平衡、比賽結果之不確定性、收入分配制度、反向新人選秀
The most important objective of a professional sports league is to offer outstanding games for every sports fan. Although fans hope for their teams to win every game, what they enjoy is a game with an uncertain outcome. If a professional sports league lacks a certain degree of competitive balance, everything would be predictable and boring. The league might also encounter the problem of losing fans in the future. The purpose of this study was first: measure the competitive balance of the Chinese Professional Baseball League (CPBL) by using standard deviation (R ratio), Competitive Balance Ratio (CBR) and transitional probabilities. The results found the competitive balance declined during the period 1993~1996 and 2003~2005, which was consistent with Fort& Lee’s (2006) research that new team entry would cause the decline of competitive balance. On average, only one team would climb from the bottom half to the top, and the championship was controlled by a few teams. Second, the reverse-order draft was too short to prove it would help the competitive balance in the CPBL. Third, the revenue sharing system would have no effect on the competitive balance in the CPBL. Finally, during 1990~1996, the average attendance was affected by the ranking of theBrother Elephants, Game Uncertainty and Playoff Uncertainty, which meant the decrease of average attendance during 1994~1996 was caused by competitive imbalance and the end of the Brother Elephants’ dynasty. Keywords: CPBL, Competitive Balance, Sports Economics, Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis, Revenue-Sharing System, Reverse-Order Rookie Draft
The most important objective of a professional sports league is to offer outstanding games for every sports fan. Although fans hope for their teams to win every game, what they enjoy is a game with an uncertain outcome. If a professional sports league lacks a certain degree of competitive balance, everything would be predictable and boring. The league might also encounter the problem of losing fans in the future. The purpose of this study was first: measure the competitive balance of the Chinese Professional Baseball League (CPBL) by using standard deviation (R ratio), Competitive Balance Ratio (CBR) and transitional probabilities. The results found the competitive balance declined during the period 1993~1996 and 2003~2005, which was consistent with Fort& Lee’s (2006) research that new team entry would cause the decline of competitive balance. On average, only one team would climb from the bottom half to the top, and the championship was controlled by a few teams. Second, the reverse-order draft was too short to prove it would help the competitive balance in the CPBL. Third, the revenue sharing system would have no effect on the competitive balance in the CPBL. Finally, during 1990~1996, the average attendance was affected by the ranking of theBrother Elephants, Game Uncertainty and Playoff Uncertainty, which meant the decrease of average attendance during 1994~1996 was caused by competitive imbalance and the end of the Brother Elephants’ dynasty. Keywords: CPBL, Competitive Balance, Sports Economics, Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis, Revenue-Sharing System, Reverse-Order Rookie Draft
Description
Keywords
中華職棒, 運動經濟學, 競爭平衡, 收入分配制度, 反向新人選秀, 比賽結果之不確定性, CPBL, Sports Economics, Competitive Balance, Revenue Sharong System, Reverse Order Rookie Draft, Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis