香港歷任特首施政滿意度之影響性研究 1997-2019
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2020
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香港特首作為香港特別行政區的元首，既為香港的領袖，並負責執行《基本法》、簽署財政預算案、公布法律、立法會通過的法案，並發布行政命令。特首施政表現的好壞，不但關係到香港政府的順利運作，也與民眾生活密切相關。所以民眾對特首的滿意度不但是對於特首表現的「成績單」，也是民眾對特首作為及表現的意見反映。故本文探討影響香港特首施政滿意度的因素，分析資料範圍期間是從 1997年到 2019年，以香港大學民意研究計畫的特首施政滿意度資料為主，並輔以國外總統或首長施政滿意度的相關文獻與模型作為建構理論架構的依據著重探討在任時間、經濟環境、重大事件、政治因素等對於特首的施政滿意度評價。當中重大事件包括國際上影響香港的事件，與中國有關的重要事件及香港內部有關政策上的事件，探討事件對特首施政滿意度是否存在結構狀態轉換。
本文使用自我迴歸模型與馬克夫結構轉換模型，探討經濟變數與政治變數對於特首評分的影響性。實證研究發現：第一，在新任特首上任後皆有蜜月期，但隨著時間推移，施政評分會持續下降，其中唯獨前特首梁振英在任時並無蜜月期，施政評分維持低迷的狀態。第二，在經濟環境方面，發現消費者物價指數與失業率負向影響特首施政評分，當消費者物價指數與失業率下降時，特首施政滿意度愈高。第三，私人住宅售價指數對於特首評分不同的時期呈現不同的影響性，當香港民眾對特首較不滿意時，私人住宅售價指數負向影響評分；反之，當香港民眾對特首較滿意時，該指數正向影響評分。第四，在政治變數方面，當建制派於立法會席次比例愈高時，立法會愈快通過政府及中國希望通過但民眾不支持的法案，使特首施政滿意度則愈低。最後，「八萬五」房屋政策、2008年金融海嘯、推行「德育及國民教育科」、發放電燈泡現金卷、「佔領中環」及「雨傘革命」等重大事件對於特首施政評分有著狀態轉換的影響性。
The Chief Executive of Hong Kong is the head of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region. He/She represents Hong Kong externally and is responsible for the implementation of the Basic Law, signing of bills and budgets passed by the Legislative Council, promulgating laws, deciding government policies, and issuing administrative orders. The quality of the chief executive’s performance is not only related to how smooth the operation of the Hong Kong government is, but it is also related to people’s standard of living. Therefore, the public's satisfaction with the chief executive is a reflection of people’s point of views to the performance of the chief executive. This study discusses the factors that affect the satisfaction of The Chief Executive of Hong Kong. The period of analysis of the data is from 1997 to 2019, it is mainly based on the satisfaction of the chief executive conducted by the Public Opinion Programme, established by The University of Hong Kong. The variables are during his/her tenure, the economic environment, the political factors and some major events. The major events includes international events affecting Hong Kong, important events related to China, and relevant policy events within Hong Kong, to explore whether there is a structural state transition in the satisfaction of the chief executive's governance before and after the occurrence of their events. This study uses the self-regression model and the Markov Switching dynamic regression model to explore the impact of economic variables and political variables on the scores of the Chief executives. This study finds that: First, there is a honeymoon period after the new Chief executive takes office, but the governance score will continue to decline over time. Among them, the former chief executive Leung Chun Ying is the only one who has no honeymoon period when he took office, and the governance score remains sluggish during the whole period. Second, in terms of the economic environment, the consumer price index and unemployment rate negatively affected the chief executive’s governance score. When the consumer price index and unemployment rate fell, the chief executive’s governance satisfaction will be higher. Third, the impact of the private residential selling price index on the chief executive’s rating has undergone a structural transformation. When the Hong Kong Chief Executive’s rating is low, the private residential selling price index negatively affects its rating; on the contrary, when the Hong Kong Chief Executive’s rating is high, the index positively affects its score, showing two different status influence. Fourth, in terms of political variables, the higher the Pro-establishment camp’s percentage of seats in the Legislative Council, the lower the satisfaction of the chief executive’s governance. Finally, major events such as the "85,000" housing policy, the 2008 financial crises, the Implementation of Moral and National Education, "Occupy Central" and "Umbrella Revolution" have had a state transition influence on the chief executive's governance score.
The Chief Executive of Hong Kong is the head of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region. He/She represents Hong Kong externally and is responsible for the implementation of the Basic Law, signing of bills and budgets passed by the Legislative Council, promulgating laws, deciding government policies, and issuing administrative orders. The quality of the chief executive’s performance is not only related to how smooth the operation of the Hong Kong government is, but it is also related to people’s standard of living. Therefore, the public's satisfaction with the chief executive is a reflection of people’s point of views to the performance of the chief executive. This study discusses the factors that affect the satisfaction of The Chief Executive of Hong Kong. The period of analysis of the data is from 1997 to 2019, it is mainly based on the satisfaction of the chief executive conducted by the Public Opinion Programme, established by The University of Hong Kong. The variables are during his/her tenure, the economic environment, the political factors and some major events. The major events includes international events affecting Hong Kong, important events related to China, and relevant policy events within Hong Kong, to explore whether there is a structural state transition in the satisfaction of the chief executive's governance before and after the occurrence of their events. This study uses the self-regression model and the Markov Switching dynamic regression model to explore the impact of economic variables and political variables on the scores of the Chief executives. This study finds that: First, there is a honeymoon period after the new Chief executive takes office, but the governance score will continue to decline over time. Among them, the former chief executive Leung Chun Ying is the only one who has no honeymoon period when he took office, and the governance score remains sluggish during the whole period. Second, in terms of the economic environment, the consumer price index and unemployment rate negatively affected the chief executive’s governance score. When the consumer price index and unemployment rate fell, the chief executive’s governance satisfaction will be higher. Third, the impact of the private residential selling price index on the chief executive’s rating has undergone a structural transformation. When the Hong Kong Chief Executive’s rating is low, the private residential selling price index negatively affects its rating; on the contrary, when the Hong Kong Chief Executive’s rating is high, the index positively affects its score, showing two different status influence. Fourth, in terms of political variables, the higher the Pro-establishment camp’s percentage of seats in the Legislative Council, the lower the satisfaction of the chief executive’s governance. Finally, major events such as the "85,000" housing policy, the 2008 financial crises, the Implementation of Moral and National Education, "Occupy Central" and "Umbrella Revolution" have had a state transition influence on the chief executive's governance score.
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香港特首, 施政滿意度, 民意調查, 政黨認同, 香港政治體制, The Chief Executive of Hong Kong, Citizen Satisfaction, Public Opinion Polls, Party Identification, Hong Kong’s Political System