探討臺灣基礎油價格影響因素之研究

Abstract

潤滑油是支撐工業、車輛、船舶等運轉時，非常重要的潤滑性產品。而基礎油是潤滑油中最重要的基礎原料油，基礎油價格的變化，是影響潤滑油波動的主要因素。本研究探討臺灣基礎油的價格影響因素，研究資料期間為2010年至2022年。本研究蒐集這十三年期間的原油、柴油、匯率、東北亞基礎油、臺灣基礎油等五項變數的月平均價格資料。採用多元線性迴歸分析方法，探究原油價格、柴油價格、匯率、及東北亞基礎油價格對臺灣基礎油150N與500N價格的影響，並分別建立預測模型。實證結果顯示，原油價格、柴油價格、匯率、及東北亞基礎油價格等四項變數分別對於臺灣基礎油150N與500N價格都具有顯著性相關。本研究以該四項變數，作為對臺灣基礎油150N與500N價格的預測模型，供潤滑油生產業者在短期預測時參考。

Lubricating oil is a very important lubricating product to support the operation of industries, vehicles, ships, etc. Base oil is the most important base raw material oil in lubricating oil, and the change in base oil price is the main factor affecting the fluctuation of lubricating oil. This study explores the factors affecting the price of Taiwan’s base oil. The research data period is from year of 2010 to 2022. This study collects monthly average price data of five variables, including crude oil, diesel fuel, exchange rate, base oil in Northeast Asia, and base oil in Taiwan during the 13-year period. Multiple linear regression analysis is used to explore the impact of prices of crude oil, diesel fuel, exchange rate, and Northeast Asia base oil on the prices of Taiwan base oil 150N and 500N, and establish prediction models, respectively.The empirical results show that four variables, including price of crude oil, price of diesel fuel, exchange rate, and price of Northeast Asia base oil, has significant correlations with prices of Taiwan base oil 150N and 500N respectively. In this study, these four variables are used as a prediction model for the prices of Taiwan base oil 150N and 500N for lubricating oil producers’ reference in short-term forecasting.