房地合一稅實施前後對不動產價格與交易量之影響-以臺北市為例

Abstract

「房地合一稅」是政府於2016年1月1日開始實施的不動產稅制，主要目的為健全臺灣不動產稅制、遏止房價不合理飆漲，進而捍衛全民的居住正義。然而，此政策在實施的兩年後是否能有效地抑制房價，使房價回歸合理價位，乃本研究之主要動機，本研究將藉由敘述統計以及迴歸模型之實證結果，分析臺北市地區的實價登錄交易資料，探討房地合一稅對不動產交易價量之影響，檢視其實施成果，並進而對此稅制提出建議與想法。

本研究實證發現，房地合一稅在實施初期，確實造成臺北市之住宅市場交易量大幅萎縮，但政策實施一年後，交易量即回升至政策實施前之水準，顯示房地合一稅缺乏長期「以稅制量」之效果；而稅制對房價的影響效果與交易量相似，短期內政策效果顯著地使房價降低，長期則無明顯抑價效果，僅能延緩臺北市地區之房價上漲。The Consolidated Housing and Land Tax is one of the tax systems put into force on January 1st, 2016, which was mainly functioned as ameliorating the current situation of real estate tax system, cooling down the unreasonable dramatic housing price rising, and then defending for civil residential justice. However, I am thinking whether this policy could effectively cease the housing price rising after the implementing in 2 years, and pull it back on track.

This research is aimed to analyze the actual price registration of Taipei city, with the empirical resultant values of descriptive statistics and regression models and to explore the impact of The Consolidated Housing and Land Tax on housing transaction volume, checking on the outcome, and then to propose some suggestions for this tax system.

In this research, I find out the fact that in the beginning of implementing of The Consolidated Housing and Land Tax Policy, Taipei housing transaction volume considerably shrank. However, under this policy one year later, the transaction volume gradually returned to the standard on which originally it had been before implementing the policy, and which indicates that the policy failed to effectively elevate the housing transaction volume by tax for the long term. Furthermore, the policy’s impact on housing price is similar to the one on housing transaction volume—in the short term it apparently reduced the Taipei housing price but in the long term it failed to effectively control the price rising but merely put it off.