好的開始大於成功的一半-投打對決的致勝之道

Abstract

在棒壘球運動中投手扮演著攸關比賽勝負的重要角色。投手如果能夠在投打對決第一球取得好球時，有壓制上壘率的趨勢。而在這瞬息萬變的球場上，場上的情境如何影響投手的第一球配球模式是值得關注的議題。目的：本研究目的為探討壘球比賽中投手對決打席第一球，在壘上情境、出局數情境、進壘角度、第一球結果以及打擊結果間之關係。方法：以影片標記方式分析2018年企業女子壘球聯賽59場例行賽，再以卡方適合性檢定以及卡方獨立性考驗檢驗各項變量。結果：一、投手普遍都以外角球進行第一球的配球策略。二、投手取得第一球好球時與該打者出局的結果有高關聯，反之第一球壞球時，則與該打者上壘有高關聯。三、投手會依據不同壘上情境進行不同進壘角度的配球策略；但在不同出局數情境下投手不會有偏好進壘角度的投球策略。結論：當投手第一球為好球時，會降低打者上壘機率，而當投手面對打席的第一球為壞球時，則有較高機率讓打者上壘的現象。In baseball and softball games, the pitcher plays an important role, determining the win or lose of the game. If the pitcher can get a strike in the first pitch of each plate appearance, there is a tendency to suppress the on base percentage (OBP). In this ever-changing field, how the situation on the court affects the pitcher's first pitches pattern is worth concerning. Purpose: The purpose of this study was to explore the relations among the pitcher's first pitches, the situation on the base, the number of outs, pitch locations, the result of the first pitching, and the outcome of the battings in the softball game. Method: Videos of fifty-nine regular games of the 2018 Women's Softball League were used for recording data, and the Chi-squared test of Goodness-of-Fit and the Chi-Squared test of independence were used for statistical analyses. Results: First, the pitchers generally used the outside pitch as the strategy for the first pitching. Second, the pitcher's getting a strike in the first pitch was significantly associated with the result of the batter's out whereas the ball in the first pitch had a significant association with the batter's being awarded a base. Third, the pitchers adapted different pitch locations as a strategy according to different conditions on the base. The pitching location did not show any significant association with different contexts of the outs. Conclusion: When the pitcher's first pitch is a strike, the batter's OBP will be lower; if the pitcher’s first pitch is a ball, the batter's OBP will be higher.