名人堂入選模型之研究—以美國棒球大聯盟為例

Abstract

美國棒球名人堂自1936年成立，至今2020年已有332位成員，其中的233位是以球員的身分入選。美國棒球名人堂入選的依據為球員的數據、能力、正直、運動精神、性格及對球隊貢獻的綜合評比，也因此並非有單一標準得以衡量之。過去的研究曾經以名人堂的入選是否存在著種族歧視為主體建構了名人堂入選的預測模型，雖然並未將所有球員數據的變項納入討論，但仍提供了本研究建立模型的基礎。本研究以2000~2020年存在於名人堂選票上的球員為樣本，將球員分成先發投手、後援投手及野手，採計了球員在投球、打擊及守備的相關數據，更進一步加上了其所獲得的獎項作為自變數，以是否入選名人堂為應變數，採用區別分析以及羅吉斯迴歸建立一以美國棒球名人堂為基礎的預測模型。臺灣棒球名人堂則於2014年成立，至今只有7年歷史，選入的選手數量也不若棒球名人堂，未來的發展方向可以多向有設立棒球名人堂之國家參考。透過區別分析函數和羅吉斯迴歸的結果透過勝算比的方式轉為是否能進入名人堂之機率，加以對臺灣職棒球員其生涯超過10年者做預測。研究結果指出，選入的變項在名人堂與非名人堂球員之間皆有顯著差異，其中，以明星賽為主要選入之變項，同時也代表著，美國棒球名人堂的成員與明星賽的入選有所關連。以中華職棒的球員做預測，預測結果先發投手潘威倫無論以何種方式計算都將會上榜；後援投手中劉義傳、高建三無論以何種方式預測皆會入選；野手中，張泰山、林智勝、彭政閔及黃忠義無論以何種方式預測皆會入選。對於後續的研究，希望能著眼於數據差異及尚且無法量化的能力，提供中華職棒更準確合適的預測模型。National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum (hereafter HOF) was established in 1936. HOF has included 332 members by 2020, 233 of which are selected as baseball players. The voting mechanism and reference of HOF shall be based upon the player's record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player (has) played. Therefore, a coherent standard to elected members in HOF is absent. Generated predictive analytics models, examining the existence of racism within the HOF selection mechanism, research in the past lack of including all the potential variables, impacting on the performance of players. As a result, the thesis aims to construct the predictive model on the basis of previous literatures. To build up a predictive analytics model in analysing HOF selection mechanism, the study categorises the players on the HOF ballots from 2000 to 2020, as starting pitchers, relief pitchers, and fielders.This study uses the players who is on the HOF ballots from 2000 to 2020 as sample, and divides the players into starting pitchers, relief pitchers, and fielders. This study collects relevant data on the players' pitching, batting, fielding, and awards as independent variables. Whether players is selected or not as dependent variables. On the contrary, established in 2014 and welcoming its 7th anniversary, the scale of Taiwan Baseball Hall of Fame and that of HOF exists a huge gap in member amounts. The future development of Taiwan HOF may refer to other countries with long-term history of HOF.The research employs discriminative analysis and Logis regression, to predict the possibility of current players with over 10 years career in Chinese Professional Baseball League (hereafter CPBL) being elected in HOF.The research results demonstrate that there are significant differences between the selected variables of HOF and non-HOF. Among them, the variables of whether participating in All-Star shares correlation in being elected as HOF members. In the prediction models, Wei-Lun Pan could be selected as starting pitchers, Yi-Chuan Liu and Jian-San Gao could be selected as relief pitchers, and Tai-Shan Zhang , Zhi-Sheng Lin , Zheng-Min Peng and Zhong-Yi Huang could be selected as fielders. Further research may continue to draw upon the data differences and abilities that cannot be quantified, and to provide a more accurate and well-rounded prediction model for CPBL.