自由度的世界趨勢與東亞動態:以「自由之家」報告為焦點的分析(1974-2021)

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2023

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本文旨在透過自由之家報告與相關文獻分析,檢視全球自第三波民主化後之自由度趨勢,並以比較與歷史研究法與空間分析方法,分析世界民主是否如自由之家及學者所述,已然於2006年邁向民主衰退。接續觀察臺灣所在之東亞地區,十六國民主之內外部問題與動態發展。首先通過資料庫評比發現,自由之家比起Polity、V-Dem之測量標準,較具有直觀性與更能如實反應該國人民之生活狀況,因此引為本文之分析基礎。研究結果發現:世界自由趨勢無論以民主衰退國家總數或自由度衰退趨勢,甚或以世界六大分區觀察,皆能發現自由民主自2005年至2008年間確有開始衰退之現象,其中又以亞太地區之衰退趨勢最晚發生。且透過空間分析得知民主聚集地為歐、美地區,專制聚集地已形成西非、中非、北非、中東、中亞、中國、中南半島之裙帶地區,顯示世界民主已然受到威脅。接續分析東亞十六國之民主動態發現,除共產或君主獨裁國家之中國、北韓、越南、寮國、汶萊,其自由度持續低落外,東北亞之自由度皆優於東南亞,其中又以臺灣與日本分數最高。另外,臺灣、韓國、泰國、馬來西亞、菲律賓、印尼等國家,曾因政黨、宗教、種族、階級等因素皆有出現過民粹主義者或兩極化現象,而臺灣、蒙古、韓國、泰國、馬來西亞、新加坡、菲律賓、印尼、緬甸、柬埔寨之問責制皆受到破壞。其中,泰國、緬甸、菲律賓、柬埔寨更存有軍人干政之風險,尤以泰、緬二國情況最為嚴重。最後,東北亞之臺灣、蒙古、韓國民主受到的外部威脅較為嚴重。
This thesis intends to examine the world trends of freedom score since the third wave of democratization through the data and relevant literature analysis of the Freedom House Report. It aims to analyze whether world democracy has indeed been in recession, as suggested by Freedom House and scholars, since 2006. Additionally, it focuses on observing the internal and external issues and the dynamic developments of democracy of the sixteen countries in East Asia, where Taiwan is located.Firstly, based on database evaluations, it is found that Freedom House’s measurement criteria not only are more intuitive but also reflect the living conditions of people in a country more accurately compared with Polity and V-Dem. Thus, it serves as the analytical foundation for this thesis. The research results reveal that the world trends of freedom, whether measured by the total number of countries experiencing democratic recessions, the overall declining freedom score, or even the individual data collected across the six major world regions, indicate a noticeable decline in liberal democracy after 2005 - 2008. Among these regions, the Asia-Pacific region was the latest to experience the recession. Furthermore, through spatial analysis, it is evident that democracies tend to cluster in Europe and the Americas, while authoritarian regimes have formed in the belt region spanning West Africa, Central Africa, North Africa, the Middle East, Central Asia, China, and the Indochinese Peninsula. This fact underscores the threat faced by democracy in the world.Continuing the analysis of the democratic dynamics in the sixteen countries of East Asia, it is observed that, apart from the consistently low freedom scores of the communist or monarchic autocracies such as China, North Korea, Vietnam, Laos, and Brunei, the freedom scores of Northeast Asian countries are generally higher than Southeast Asia. Taiwan and Japan have the highest scores among them all. Moreover, countries like Taiwan, South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Indonesia have experienced instances of populism and political polarization due to factors such as political parties, religions, ethnicities, and social classes. The accountability systems in Taiwan, Mongolia, South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines, Indonesia, Myanmar, and Cambodia have also been damaged. Among them, Thailand, Myanmar, the Philippines, and Cambodia face the risk of military intervention, with Thailand and Myanmar being the most severe cases. Finally, the democracies in Northeast Asia, particularly Taiwan, Mongolia, and South Korea, face more significant external threats.

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自由之家, 民主衰退, 空間自相關, 東亞民主, 民粹主義, 政治極化, Freedom House, democratic recession, spatial autocorrelation, East Asian democracy, populism, political polarization

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