烏克蘭、歐盟與俄羅斯三邊互動之研究(1991-2018)

Abstract

2013年烏克蘭親俄派總統亞努科維奇（Viktor Yanukovych）拒絕跟歐盟簽署聯繫國協定（Association Agreement）與經貿合作條約引發國內親歐派大規模示威。隔年亞努科維奇被推翻後克里米亞自行透過公投宣布獨立繼而脫烏入俄，俄國不顧國際輿論反對駐兵於克里米亞。烏國爆發親俄與親歐派對峙的局面以及國內的分離運動引發烏俄冷戰後以來最激烈的衝突。

烏俄與兩岸關係在地緣政治、國家認同和政經兩難上有部分相似性。烏克蘭位處歐洲的地緣中心，歷史淵源與鄰近大國俄羅斯密不可分。自獨立以來， 俄羅斯便同時運用經濟合作與能源外交加深對烏克蘭影響力；但歐盟東擴後改變了歐洲政治版圖亦削弱俄羅斯在傳統東歐架構下的影響力。烏克蘭與歐盟的經貿關係亦日漸深厚，其經貿合作已成為烏克蘭最重要的貿易夥伴之一。而俄國在普丁（Vladimir Putin）的強勢帶領下試圖在鄰境地區發揮強大的影響力，歐俄冷戰結束後除了軍事上尋求共同安全外自也漸漸加深經貿合作。但歐俄兩者政治文化的傳統差異仍有差距，經常形成歐洲東西方互相較勁的代表。

克里米亞危機中我們一窺烏克蘭背後歐盟與俄羅斯在地緣政治上的角力是既合作又競爭的矛盾關係。除了傳統安全議題中的軍事與地緣戰略角色，冷戰後全球化影響了國際間結構體系的變化使非傳統安全議題的經貿、科技、社會文化等層面也漸受重視，本研究以安全研究中的傳統安全和非傳統安全觀的角度結合戰略三角模型探討烏克蘭、歐盟、俄羅斯，並從彼此在歐洲版圖上衝突與合作的關係中尋找三者間的互動模式與新的解決途徑。In 2013, pro-russian Ukraine President Viktor Yanukovich's refusal to sign an Association Agreement and economic cooperation treaty with the European Union sparked mass demonstrations in Ukraine. After the overthrow of viktor yanukovych the following year, Crimea declared its independence through a referendum and then seceded from Ukraine and joined Russia. Russia has defied international opinion by stationing troops in Crimea. Pro-russian and pro-european confrontations and separatist movements in Ukraine have sparked the most violent conflict between Russia and Ukraine since the cold war. Ukraine and Russia share some similarities with Cross-Strait relations in geopolitics, national identity and political and economic dilemmas. Since Ukraine's independence, Russia has used economic cooperation and energy diplomacy to deepen its influence in Ukraine.But the enlargement of the EU has changed the political landscape of Europe and weakened Russia's influence in former Eastern Bloc countries. The economic and trade relations between Ukraine and the EU are gradually closer, and the EU has become one of Ukraine's most important trading partners due to its economic and trade cooperation. The powerful Putin led Russia in trying to exert a strong influence in neighboring regions. After the end of the cold war, Europe and Russia have gradually deepened economic and trade cooperation in addition to seeking common security militarily. However, there is still a gap between the differences of European and Russian political culture. The two sides often compete with each other in Europe. In the Crimean crisis, we can see that the geopolitical wrestling in the EU and Russia is a contradiction between cooperation and competition. As globalization has affected the changes of the international system, in addition to military and geostrategy in Traditional Security Issues, Non-traditional Security Issues have also received increasing attention including economy, trade, science and technology, social culture and other aspects. This study explores Ukraine, the EU and Russia from the perspective of Traditional and Non-traditional Security Issues combined with the strategic triangle model and looking for the interaction mode and new way to solve the conflict and cooperation in the map of Europe.