職棒球員年齡與運動表現關係之研究

Abstract

棒球運動發展至今超過百年歷史，各種棒球相關的數據因應而生且被完整紀錄，本研究主要利用棒球基礎數據與棒球統計學所衍生出的進階數據，以瞭解1990-2015年中華職棒本土退役球員其年齡與運動表現之相關，並分析球員在各項運動數據之巔峰年齡。透過結果分析，提出研究結論與建議。方法：透過年齡與運動表現的文獻探討，以及蒐集1990-2015年 (職棒元年至26年) 本土退役球員資料進行分析，並依據不同分析需求將球員區分成多種類別。結果：中華職棒五年 (含) 以上資歷及26歲 (含) 以下加盟之本土退役球員共180位 (投手56位、野手124位)，投手巔峰落在26-28歲；野手巔峰則落在27-28歲之間，另外投手平均的選手生涯7.71年略短於野手的8.31年。接著又將球員區分成優秀、中等、普通，發現較優秀的選手在數據上或是球員生涯上都比中等和普通的球員來要的長以及出色。結論：中華職棒聯盟本土退役球員平均加盟年齡為25.45歲，球員生涯僅4.48年，但卻需累積九年年資才能取得自由球員資格，制度建立應是希望活絡球員流動，所以修改中華職棒自由球員制度有其必要性。更期盼本研究結果做為球團與球員簽約的考量、球團整體戰力的佈局之參考。The baseball has developed in centuries, many statistics are related with the baseball, also has been producted and stored. In this study, we would like to use baseball statistics and sabermetrics to know the relationship between age and sports performance in 1990-2015 CPBL professional baseball retired players, and fine out peak performance among ages. Method: This research reviewed the literature between age and sports performance. Next we collected and analyzed 1990 to 2015 years information of retired players on CPBL website. Results: Have at least five career years and enter to CPBL under 26 years old, total have 180 players (56 pitchers, 124 batters). The peak performance about pitchers are between 26-28 years old, batters are between 27-28 years old. The career years about pitchers are 7.71 years less than 8.31 years about batters. And the excellent players no matter how on the statistics or length for the career years are better than normal players. Conclusion: The average age about the retired players joined CPBL was 25.45 years old, average of player career years just had 4.48 years, but in Free Agent rule who had 9 career years that he had FA qualification.