數字化管理的野心：近代中國的教育統計（1902-1937）

Abstract

本文關注近代中國治理機制的轉型。中國從傳統帝國轉型為現代民族國家的重大改變之一，在於政府的治理邏輯由消極維持政權運作，轉為積極發展社會各個層面，並在此過程中，產生對新治理知識與技術的需求。其中，以統計方法進行數字化管理，是現代政府不可或缺的重要技術。過去學界關於晚清、民國之人口、社會、經濟等現代知識形成的研究中，皆關注到「統計型調查」這項知識工具對知識型態的影響，相形之下，調查步驟完成後的數字分析與應用方式，則尚未成為研究重心。因此，本文即以伴隨新式學校教育系統出現的教育統計為切入點，觀察近代中國自晚清至民國1930年代數字管理機制與觀念的變化。近代中國的教育數字化管理技術由多層因素交織而成。本文首先討論國際統計治理競爭進入中國的歷史背景，以及晚清教育統計機制的建立及運作模式。接著敘述民國時期中央政府及學界專家辦理教育統計的方式，並分析其統計成果報告。本文透過比較北洋政府與國民政府的統計組織及人員，呈現統計行政量能提升的趨勢，此外，亦指出教育會仕紳到教育學院師生的知識份子世代變化中，學界人士愈加強調教育統計的現象。隨著社會對教育統計的重視程度逐漸提高，政府與學界人士應用數字的方式，也產生質量上的改變。國民政府的全國教育統計，使用了較北洋政府更加靈活的分析策略，諸如從項目間的關聯性發現教育問題，以及設定數值標準檢視教育政策的成效。學院師生強調「科學」的統計研究，因此追求將材料整理成百分比圖表、從大量統計數據中尋找潛在的教育現象，以及使用標準化方法衡量教育效率。然而，教育研究者更加倚重統計形式，並不必然使他們更能洞悉教育現況，其目光甚至被推理數字的研究方式侷限，因此擴大了調查結果與現實間的差距，顯示出近代中國追求數字化管理的困境。

The present thesis broadly concerns transformations in the governmentality of modern China. Within the processes of moving towards a modern state, the logic of governance shifted away from the passive maintaining of political power and its operations during the late imperial period to active attempts to develop every facet of society. Consequently, the demand for new knowledge and techniques regarding governmentality emerged, and in particular, the use of statistics to carry out forms of mathematical management was an indispensable skill for modern governments. Prior academic research on demographics, society, and economics in the late Qing dynasty and Republic of China have given prominence to the role of statistical surveys in the production of new forms of knowledge, but in contrast, the mathematical analyses and methods of their application following these surveys have received scant attention. Therefore, this thesis discusses education statistics, which emerged alongside new education systems, to observe the changes in the mechanisms and concepts of mathematical management from the late Qing to the 1930s.The formation of mathematical management techniques in modern China is comprised of several interwoven factors. To begin, the present thesis examines the historical background of how statistical governance entered China and was used on the global stage to evaluate and compare the strength of nations, as well as the establishment of institutions and models of operations concerning education statistics in the late Qing dynasty. Subsequently, this thesis analyzes the methods of employing education statistics and related reports conducted by both the central government and scholars during the Republican period. By comparing the related organizations and personnel of the Beiyang and the Nationalist governments, a trend regarding the growing capacity for statistical administration becomes readily apparent. Furthermore, seeing the generational transformations taking place within the intellectual class, namely the education associations of Chinese gentry shifting towards the academies attended by faculty and students, education statistics were increasingly stressed by scholars within academic circles.In the wake of heightened levels of acceptance, the use of education statistics is not merely reflected in quantity but also in quality. Considering compiled national education statistics, for example, the Nationalist government adopted more flexible analytical strategies than those of the Beiyang government, thereby discovering problems in education from the relationships among different survey items and setting numerical standards to inspect the results of education policies. Specialists in education and those linked to academies emphasized conducting “scientific” statistical research; that is, they preferred arranging materials into percentage diagrams, discovering potential phenomena in education from large amounts of numerical data, and making use of standardized methods to evaluate the efficiency of education systems. However, as education researchers became increasingly reliant on statistical methods, the use of these methods did not necessarily better their understanding of the situation concerning contemporary education, but rather limited their perspectives, which ultimately widened the gap between their statistical reports and the reality that surrounded them and demonstrated the dilemma of pursuing mathematical management in modern China.