以雙層賽局理論分析蔡英文政府開放美豬美牛進口政策

Abstract

蔡英文總統的第二任期甫揭幕，2020年8月28日蔡總統親自召開記者會，宣布自2021年元月起，開放含安全容許值以下萊克多巴胺 (Ractopamine) 含量之美國豬肉、內臟，以及30月齡以上之美國牛肉進口。引發媒體熱議，也引起國內各界對於該政策的疑慮與批評。回顧臺美關係歷程，美豬、美牛開放進口一直是我國歷屆政府，不分黨派都曾經面對的「燙手山芋」；然而，民進黨在2012年曾強力杯葛美牛進口，8年後卻對於美豬、美牛進口政策態度急轉彎，其原因為何？本研究指在探討蔡英文政府選擇在其第二任期之初、2020年8月底宣布這項重大政策，其中蔡政府對國際關係層面以及國內內政向度可能的考量與評估為何？本研究以普特南 (Robert Putnam) 1988年提出之雙層賽局理論 (Two-level games) 為研究視角，筆者採取文獻分析法，並配合訪談法取得蔡政府內部幕僚對美豬、美牛進口政策之決策過程的一手資料進行分析。研究發現，2016年至2020年間，蔡政府面對前所未有的新型態美中臺三邊關係，加上2020年新冠肺炎 (Covid-19) 疫情肆虐全球之時，我國亮眼的防疫表現不僅為臺灣在國際上帶來正面宣傳效果，在國內也召喚出強大的「國家光榮感」，同時更為蔡英文政府帶來以「快刀斬亂麻」之姿，處理美豬、美牛進口議題的契機。

On August 28, 2020, President Tsai Ing-wen announced the easing of importation limitations on U.S. pork and beef, a disputed and complicated issue for successive administrations in Taiwan. In 2012, before coming into office, Tsai Ing-wen and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) used to boycott the import policy of U.S. beef under the Ma Ying-jeou administration. For some, the decision of President Tsai marks the shift of the policy stance of the DPP. This thesis aims to further examine this issue through the analysis of the external and internal conditions faced by the Tsai administration.According to the Two-Level-Games Theory of Robert Putnam (1988), when a government makes decisions on transnational policies, the decision-makers need to rationalize at two levels: the international level and the domestic level. This thesis seeks to answer: what international and domestic issues the Tsai Administration concerns about when making the decision on U.S. pork and beef import policy? And why Tsai Administration chose to announce the tricky policy at the end of August in 2020?The finding of this thesis is that at the international level, the trilateral relationship between Taiwan, the U.S., and Mainland China in 2016 through 2020 provided the Tsai Administration an ideal timing for rolling out the U.S. pork and beef importation policy. At the domestic level, the excellent anti-pandemic results in Taiwan that impressed the world during the Covid-19 pandemic ravaging the world in 2020 had encouraged Taiwanese people and boosted their support for the Taiwanese government. The combination of a window of opportunity at the international level and abundant political capital at the domestic level prompted the Tsai Administration to make the tough decision of import policy in August 2020.