好萊塢動作片票房預測之研究-以電影產業鏈為分析觀點

Abstract

從過去到現在動作片一直是好萊塢電影產業熱門的片種之一，也不斷著刷新戲院 票房收入的歷史佳績，隨著近十幾年來科技不斷的進步，特效也越做越真實，觀眾 也越來越喜愛逼真的動作場景以及精彩的聲光特效，因此觀眾也更有意願買票進 戲院消遣放鬆，也促進票房收益的增長，然而票房收益的果實需要靠完整緊密的電 影產業鏈來完成，在生產者這端，需要專業的水平分工以及垂直下放，並且透過宣 傳造勢活動以及部門間互相協調統整來推動整個電影產業鏈。但是在消費者這端， 伴隨著行動網路的普及以及新網路時代的來臨，社群媒體快速竄起並且引領著時 下潮流，其中，越來越多網友會觀看專業的電影評論家以及其他網友在知名電影評 論平台給的評分以及觀賞心得，所以口碑效果的傳遞是否會影響觀眾進戲院支持 電影是個值得探討的重點。 因此本研究收集近十年的好萊塢動作片中每年前二十大動作片票房、資金、卡司陣 容、MPAA評級、上映院數、上映天數以及美國知名電影評分網站的評分以及評論 資料並透過最小平方法迴歸來分析影響票房有哪些可能因素。另外，透過續集以及 非續集類別動作片的分類，分別使用迴歸來探究不同型態的的動作片票房分別對 哪些可能因素產生偏好影響。期望可以幫助製片商在製作動作片前，可以將這些策 略因素分析納入拍攝考量。 研究結果顯示，續集相較於非續集電影有助於票房收益更加的成長，另外口碑效果 對票房對票房收益有顯著正向關係，由此可見，網路聲量對票房至關重要，而資金 和卡司指數對票房收益沒有顯著影響。希冀本研究的實證結果可以有助於電影產 業鏈來達到有效的資源配置，並且能讓該產業的經營持續蓬勃發展。From the past to the present, action movies have been one of the hottest film genres in the Hollywood film industry, and their box office revenue continue to hit new high. With the advancement of technology in the past ten years, people love for realistic action scenes and wonderful special effects, so audiences are willing to buy tickets into the theater to relax, which also increase the box office revenue. However, good box office revenue requires a complete film industry chain to shoot good works. On the producer side, professional horizontal division of labor and vertical decentralization are required, and the entire film industry chain is promoted through inter-departmental coordination and integration. But on the consumer side, with the convenience of mobile networks, social media has rapidly grown up and lead the current trend. Most netizens watch professional movie critics and audience comments on famous movie platforms. Therefore, whether the transmission of word-of-mouth effects will affect the audience go to the theater to support the movie is an issue that needs to be discussed.This research collects the box office, funding, cast , MPAA, number of theaters, number of days in theaters, and ratings and reviews of well-known film rating websites in the United States of Hollywood's top 20 action films in the past ten years, then returns them through the ordinary least square. Analyze the possible factors affect the box office. In addition, through the classification of sequel and non-sequel action movies, regression is used to explore the possible factors that different types of action movies have preference influence on the box office. The results show that shooting a sequel movie helps to increase the box office revenue. In addition, the ratings of the audience or thefilm review and the number of comments have a positive correlation with the box office. It can be seen that the volume of online voice is very important to the box office. Others such as The fund and cast index have no significant impact on box office returns.