新零售之盈餘操縱-以Ｌ企業為例

Abstract

近年來新零售市場的崛起引發了一波審計制度的省思。新零售市場的商業模式間接改變了部分遊戲規則，而從財報的舞弊案例，到美國證券交易委員會的新金融監管法案的修正，都強調注重新零售市場的財報議題。本研究將以四個面向分析新零售之盈餘操縱與衡量財務操縱之質性因素：（1）以『瑞幸』為案例，結合渾水研究機構（Muddy Waters Research）查核抓弊方式，揭露新零售企業在財報上可能有之盈餘操縱行為；（2）透過傳統M-Score 及修正後之M-Score 計量模型來檢測新零售企業操縱收益之程度；（3）從『瑞幸』案例延伸探討投資人在投資時所面臨的相關商業風險議題，以及（4）透過事前分析商業模式來分析一家新零售公司正常獲利/成長之可能性。本研究將有助於對新零售企業之盈餘操縱與其他衡量財務操縱之因素有所了解。關鍵詞：新零售、審計程序、盈餘操縱、重大錯報、瑞幸。

The rise of new retail in recent years has triggered a wave of rethinking of the audit regime. The business model of new retail has indirectly changed some of the rules of the game, and from cases of fraudulent financial reporting to the amendments to the US SEC's new financial regulation act, there has been an emphasis on the financial reporting issues of the new retail market. This study will analyze the earnings manipulation of new retailers and measure qualitative factors of financial manipulation from the following four aspects: (1) The case of "Luckin", combined with Muddy Waters Research's fraud detection method, is analyzed to reveal the possible financial manipulation of new retailers' financial reports; (2) The extent of earnings manipulationby new retail companies is examined through traditional M-Score model and modified M-Score model proposed by this study; (3) Several issues associated with business risk faced by investors in the case of"Luckin" are explored, and (4) The business model associated with the likelihood of normal profitability/growth of a new retail company is analyzed in advance. This study will contribute to the understanding of earnings manipulation and other qualitative factors of financial manipulation of new retail companies.

Keywords: New Retail Models, Audit Process, Earnings Manipulation, Material Misstatement, Luckin Coffee