國際花卉博覽會對主辦地區經濟效益的影響

Abstract

國際會展活動在臺灣已經有極大成長並使臺灣累積許多舉辦國際大型會展活動的經驗。過去文獻曾研究大型運動賽事活動對於主辦地區經濟層面之影響，但研究大型博覽會對於主辦地區績效的影響之文獻卻極為有限。本研究的主要貢獻為研究國際花卉博覽會對於主辦地區之經濟效益之影響程度，本文採用迴歸分析 (regression analysis) 及事件研究法 (event study)，研究自1951至2011年間，12個國家與34場國際花卉博覽會對於主辦地區績效之影響。本研究以GDP、失業率、投資額，及入境旅客人數作為探討之因變數。自變數則為舉辦階段、國別、舉辦次數及等級。人口成長率、國家發展程度與國土面積則為控制變數。實證結果顯示主辦國際花博會對於主辦國家之GDP、投資額及入境旅客人數在舉辦活動前與舉辦活動中階段有顯著正向影響，對於失業率有顯著負向影響。主辦國家或地區中，日本與中國大陸相較臺灣對GDP及失業率有較佳之表現；臺灣相較其他國家在投資額表現上較好；法國、義大利與中國大陸在入境旅客人數上有較好表現。舉辦次數對GDP、投資額及入境旅客人數也有顯著正向影響，對於失業率則有顯著負向影響。至於舉辦國際花博會之規模等級中，A1等級對失業率有顯著負向影響、對入境旅客人數有顯著正向影響，A2、B2等級對GDP及投資額有顯著正向影響。建議本研究之實證結果可作為地區發展觀光與振興經濟之參考。

Meeting, incentive travel, convention and exhibition (MICE) industries have been growing up and developing rapidly in the world. Existing researches that investigated the economic impact of mega events on the hosting area or country are limited. This study explores the economic and tourist impact of international flora expositions (IFE) on the hosting areas, and using both regression analysis and the event study approaches in the observed 12 countries which had ever hosted 34 IFEs during 1951 to 2011. This research using four dependent variables including the gross domestic product, the unemployment rate, the investment amount, and the number of inbound tourists, examined the economic and tourism impacts of hosting the IFE. The different phases of holding the event, the country where the IFEs belong to, the frequency of hosting IFEs, and the categories of IFEs are considered as independent variables; the population growth rate, the degree of development of country and the area of country land are control variables. The result shows that hosting IFEs could make significantly positive impacts on GDP, investment and number of inbound tourists, and make a significantly negative impact on unemployment rate of the hosting areas during the pre-event and event phases. Comparing to the impact of GDP and unemployment rate of Taiwan to those of the other hosting areas, Japan and China, these two areas have relatively better performance. Taiwan instead is relatively better than other countries or areas in terms of investment amount. In contrast, regarding the inbound tourists, the hosting areas of France, Italy, and China have operated it much well than Taiwan. The frequency of hosting IFEs could also make significantly positive impacts on GDP, investment and number of inbound tourists, and make a significantly negative impact on unemployment rate. Regarding to the impact of IFE’s level, A1 has a significantly negative impact on unemployment rate, and makes a significantly positive impact on number of inbound tourists. Both A2 and B2 instead make significantly positive impacts on GDP and investment. Future research involving social and cultural impact of IFEs on the hosting areas would be further extended.