中國海權發展戰略對臺海安全衝擊：聚焦金馬海域

Abstract

本文從戰略研究的途徑，探討中國海權發展戰略，以及近期對金門與馬祖海域的灰色地帶行動，對於臺灣海峽兩岸關係以及東亞區域和平與穩定的影響。中國透過海上執法侵擾與海上威壓活動，企圖削弱中華民國對金馬海域的實質管轄權，最終喪失對該海域的執法權力，並挑戰國際社會對中華民國主權的認知。同時，中國利用這些行動測試中華民國與國際社會的反應，以評估美日等國是否會介入，進一步為未來可能進犯臺灣本島的軍事行動創造條件。若中華民國無法有效應對，中國可能升級行動，以壓縮中華民國的海上戰略緩衝空間，並試圖改變臺海現狀。金馬若遭中國進一步侵擾、甚至遭到佔領，將嚴重影響中華民國的戰略防禦縱深與民心士氣。因此，中華民國政府應優先強化金馬防衛，並呼籲國際社會關注中國的侵擾行動，以維護臺海的和平、穩定與自由航行權。現階段，中華民國應積極強化軍事防禦、法理論述與國際合作，防止中國透過灰色地帶行動侵蝕金馬的安全，使臺海兩岸局勢進一步惡化。金馬的安全與存續，直接影響中華民國的國防戰略與國際認同，中華民國須審慎應對，以確保主權與領土的完整，以及東亞區域的和平與穩定。

This paper explores the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) maritime power development strategy from the perspective of strategic studies, focusing on its recent gray zone operations targeting the Kinmen and Matsu waters, and the resulting impact on cross-strait relations and the peace and stability of the East Asian region.Through maritime law enforcement harassment and coercive tactics, the PRC aims to undermine the Republic of China’s (ROC) substantive jurisdiction over the Kinmen and Matsu waters. The ultimate objective is to erode the ROC’s enforcement capabilities in these areas and to influence the international community’s perception of the ROC’s sovereignty. At the same time, the PRC employs this gray zone operation to test the responses of the ROC and the international community, particularly the potential for intervention by the United States and Japan—thereby paving the way for possible future military actions.Should the ROC fail to respond effectively, the PRC may escalate its measures, further compressing the ROC’s maritime strategic buffer and attempting to unilaterally change the status quo in the Taiwan Strait. If Kinmen and Matsu are further infringed upon or evenoccupied, it would severely compromise the ROC’s strategic defense depth and diminish public morale.Accordingly, the ROC government should prioritize strengthening the defense of Kinmen and Matsu and urge the international community to take greater notice of the PRC’s encroaching actions, in order to safeguard peace, regional stability, and freedom of navigation in the Taiwan Strait. At this stage, the ROC must actively enhance its military preparedness, strengthen its legal and diplomatic discourse, and deepen international cooperation to counter the PRC’s gray zone operation and prevent further deterioration of cross-strait dynamics.The security and survival of Kinmen and Matsu are directly linked to the ROC’s national defense strategy and international standing. A firm yet prudent response is essential to upholding the integrity of its sovereignty and territory, as well as preserving peace and stability in the East Asian region.