臺海兩岸統合關係研究—以歐洲聯盟經驗為例

Abstract

人類進入廿世紀的前半期，就引發了兩次世界大戰，歐洲與中國都處在劫難的中心。1945年，第二次大戰結束，中華人民共和國於1949年建國，導致中國以臺灣海峽為界，兩岸分裂分治的局面。臺海兩岸歷經卅年的敵對，十年的熱交流，又十年的經濟熱、政治冷的矛盾交流。臺灣以海島外向型經濟，如何在全球化區域統合的經貿趨勢下，突破中共的外交封鎖，求國家的安定與人民的幸福，是為當前重要課題。 歐洲各國戰後，從煤鋼共同體發展到經濟共同體，因為擴大合作帶來的外溢效果，再擴大合作成為歐洲聯盟，現在已發展到共同貨幣，2004年5月1日起，又加入中、東歐的新成員國，成為25國的聯盟，目前正朝向擬定歐盟憲法的方向發展。歐盟的統合經驗，不是一蹴可幾的，中間也曾經有疑慮，但是，透過菁英份子的努力，促成合作的繼續發展。歐洲人民享受合作帶來的成果，並未因超國家組織職能擴充，而減少對國家忠誠。 本論文嘗試以歐洲聯盟統合的經驗，探究兩岸統合的可行性。本研究採用歐盟統合理論的最新分析途徑，包括辯證功能主義、歷史制度主義以及政治經濟研究途徑。在理論層面，從修正的統合理論分析臺海兩岸困境及緊張情勢，並以新功能主義和「核心－邊陲」變動理論角度切入兩岸關係，提出兩岸共同市場的統合初步。在事實層面，本論文提出以臺灣為中心的地理研究，並以經貿板塊的形成切入議題，說明兩岸地緣及經貿關係親密，政治關係疏離，甚至處於戰爭邊緣的乖離現象。兩岸地緣接近，加以同文同種，如何共存共榮，是當前最大挑戰。 本論文研究結果，兩岸長期經貿往來熱絡，貿易依存度逐年提高。近年來又透過民間智庫交流，致力於各種介面的統合，大中華經濟圈已然成形。建議兩岸政治領導人，「存異求同」坐下來談，中期目標訂在兩岸共同市場的推動，俟兩岸社會、文化及政治制度的差距逐漸縮減後，依新功能主義溢出效果之發展，再進入遠程目標的政治統合。兩岸統合有進度表，沒有時間表，完全依兩岸的善意及進展向前推進。In the first half part of 20th century, there were two world wars. Both China and Europe had been suffered the bitterness of cruelty as killing and damage. After 1945, followed a temporary peace, in 1949 a new nation－The People’s Republic of China were given birth to the world. Since then China has been divided to two parts across Taiwan Strait. There are the Republic of China founded in 1912, and the People’s Republic of China founded in 1949 co-exists in the world. After 30 years opposition in the area across Taiwan Strait came a period of hot communication for a decade, then another decade of warm economic relationship and cold political situation, this is a ”Dilemma”. In Europe after the 2nd World War, France and German decided to hold hands rather than fighting. Since 1951, from ECSC to EEC, six European countries, including France, German, Italy, Netherlands, Belgium, and Luxemburg combined together and formed EC. Because of the spill-over effect, the EC enlarged from 6 to 10, to 12, to 15, to 25 countries, as a European Union. Can Taiwan and PROC have a win-win policy by copying the European Union experience of integration? In this study, there comes a conclusion: after a long term of economic communication both side of cross Taiwan Strait will get more and more depending on each other, and the political Authorities of both sides might getting to a common consensus for the best benefit of the people of Taiwan and PROC: A Greater China Common Market could be a mid-term target for this area. After the gap of social, culture, and political system getting smooth out, a political integration might be the next step.