探討COVID-19 期間經濟政策對奢侈品行業的影響

Abstract

在追逐令人羨慕的生活方式中，奢侈是奢華中不可分割的一部分而存在著。在社會歷史的各個階段，不論個人或團體始終皆會追求這種奢侈，以努力將自己與彼此區分開來。這種行為的根本在於人們經常根據物質來推斷他人的成功。有鑑於此，奢侈品不能與日常必需品及其潛在行為特徵下被看待。經濟蕭條是經濟體較難以完全避免的問題，而其所帶來引響可能波及至多個產業。考慮到此，人們對於經濟衰退如何影響奢侈品市場提出現了兩種思想流派。一方面，一些人認為奢侈品對經濟衰退很敏感，因為經濟衰退通常會使股票等被動收入來源貶值，進而減少可支配收入與現金的流動。然而在另一方面，也有觀點表明，奢侈品作為凡伯倫商品的行業似乎並未受到整體經濟環境的影響，反而實現了可觀的回報。本論文旨在探討美國疫情時期經濟與奢侈品消費上變化，亦即經濟變量與奢侈品的市場價值之間的相關性。通過回歸模型，這項研究發現，當從失業率、政府補貼支出、利率和國民儲蓄總額的衰退角度審視個人奢侈品時，在經濟衰退期間該產業並沒有遇到與整個經濟類似的困難。最值得注意的是，失業率是該市場最能感受到緊縮影響的唯一指標。 基於此，古普塔針對 2008 年金融危機的戰略發現也適用於當前的大流行病，即保持長期發展。為了應對經濟衰退，古普塔提議維持長期戰略，尤其是營銷戰略，這將是至關重要的，因為據記錄，為了彌補損失而滿足短期需求最終會失去客戶。In the pursuit of an enviable lifestyle, luxury exists as an inseparable part of luxury. At all stages of social history, individuals and groups have always pursued this luxury in an effort to distinguish themselves from each other. At the root of this behavior is the fact that people often infer the success of others based on material things. In light of this, luxury goods cannot be viewed in the same context as everyday necessities and their underlying behavioral characteristics. Economic depression is a problem that is difficult for an economy to completely avoid, and its impact may affect multiple industries. With this in mind, two schools of thought have emerged on how the recession will affect the luxury market. On the one hand, some argue that luxury is sensitive to recessions, which typically depreciate passive income sources such as stocks, reducing disposable income and cash flow. However, on the other hand, there are also opinions that the industry of luxury as a Veblen commodity does not seem to be affected by the overall economic environment but has achieved considerable returns. This paper aims to explore the changes in the economy and luxury consumption during the US epidemic, that is, the correlation between economic variables and the market value of luxury goods. Using regression modeling, the study found that when looking at personal luxury goods in terms of declines in unemployment, government subsidy spending, interest rates, and gross national saving, the industry did not experience similar difficulties during recessions as the economy as a whole. Most notably, the unemployment rate is the only indicator in this market where the impact of the tightening is most felt. Based on this, Gupta's strategic finding for the 2008 financial crisis also applies to the current pandemic: to maintain long-term development. In response to the recession, Gupta proposed that maintaining a long-term strategy, especially marketing, will be critical, as it has been documented that meeting short-term needs in order to make up for losses ends up losing customers.