計算中國學：「國台辦新聞動態」的訊號及情感分析

Abstract

國務院台灣事務辦公室（簡稱國台辦）為中共中央對台工作領導小組的辦事機構，並作為中共對台發布聲明、接待台灣重要政商人士的重要單位。國台辦對兩岸關係的重要性體現在多個方面，包括執行中央政策、推動兩岸交流、維護和平穩定以及兩岸同胞福祉等。其存在與發揮的作用對於發展兩岸關係具有重要意義及特殊性，並為雙邊關係帶來積極的影響。有鑑於此，本研究以「計算中國學」的方式，藉由文字探勘技術研究進行中國研究。以國台辦發布的新聞動態文本為基礎，輔以說明兩岸關係的重要發展、國台辦的功能與角色的背景知識，以此分析中共對台發布新聞是否為一種政治訊號傳遞，以及探究中共官方對台關係的情感分析。本研究收集自2009年4月至2023年3月止，共546筆國台辦新聞動態文本，利用文本分類、詞頻以及正、負向詞進行情感分析，根據數據結果進行有效說明，並分類及歸納出文本類型是屬於官僚或訊號理論，以及其相關的兩岸關係判別之關鍵字。企圖以數據化、圖像化呈現在一定時期內中共官方的對台關係趨向，揭示兩岸關係關係的實際發展情形，將判讀兩岸關係發展趨勢的直覺進行量化，提供出一個衡量兩岸關係走向的觀測指標。The Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council (the Taiwan Affairs Office) serves as the executive agency of the Taiwan Work Leading Group of the Communist Party of China (CPC), and it plays a vital role in issuing statements on Taiwan-related matters and receiving important political and business figures from Taiwan. The significance of the Taiwan Affairs Office in cross-strait relations is manifested in various aspects, including implementing central policies, promoting cross-strait exchanges, maintaining peace and stability, and safeguarding the well-being of compatriots on both sides of the Taiwan Strait. Its existence and functions are of paramount importance and uniqueness in the development of cross-strait relations, and it brings positive impacts to bilateral relations. In view of this, this study adopts the approach of"Computational China Studies" to conduct research on China by utilizing text mining technology. Based on the news updates released by the Taiwan Affairs Office, supplemented with background knowledge explaining the significant developments in cross-strait relations and the functions and roles of the Taiwan Affairs Office, this study analyzes whether the news releases by the CPC towards Taiwan serve as a form of political signaling and explores the sentiment analysis of the official CPC stance oncross-strait relations.This study collects a total of 546 news updates from the Taiwan Affairs Office from April 2009 to March 2023. It utilizes text classification, word frequency analysis, positive and negative words and sentiment analysis to provide effective explanations. It categorizes and summarizes whether the text types belong to bureaucratic or signal theory, along with the key words for discerning cross-strait relations. Attempting to present the trends of the CPC's official stance on cross-strait relations in a digitized and visualized manner over a certain period, it reveals the actual development of cross-strait relations and quantifies the intuitive interpretation of the trends in cross-strait relations, providing an observational indicator for assessing the direction of cross-strait relations.