中華職棒歷年投手使用與勝負關係之研究

Abstract

本研究旨在探討中華職棒投手的使用與勝負關係的分析，以次級資料分析法(Secondary Data Analysis) 來調查中華職棒元年 (1990 年) 至中華職棒 32 年 (2021 年) 的投手使用資料及投球數據。透過文獻回顧內容中發現中華職棒制度上的變化，職棒在 二軍建立後各球團可使用人數逐漸壯大，因此在選手的選擇使用輪替上也更加分工精細， 因此透過年代劃分來作為本次研究的時間軸，希望可以瞭解逐年的變化。資料內容上，比賽資料 8128 場例行賽、16256 位先發投手使用人次、51505 位投手 使用人次作為主要研究對象，調查在勝場與敗場兩種結果之中，投手使用人次上的差異 為何以及勝、敗使用的人數上等不同條件下是否有差異，並希望能夠建立有關投手勝利 關鍵因素之方程式，使球團能夠瞭解到目前投手該注重的能力為何，以達到獲取勝利的 最後目標。研究結果發現，中華職棒在歷年的投手使用上，在使用人次上產生了明顯的差異， 人數使用上逐年上升，在勝與敗相關的資料之中，在各項數據也是呈現顯著性的差異， 其中可以發現有關於控球能力和防禦力等幾項與投手相關數值都是呈現上升趨勢，投手 追求三振避免球被擊中成為未來重要的關鍵技術之一。The purpose of this study is to explore the analysis of the relationship between the use of Chinese Professional Baseball League pitchers and the outcome of the game. Secondary data analysis is used to investigate the relationship between the first year of Chinese Professional Baseball League (1990) to the 32nd year of Chinese Professional Baseball League (2021) Pitcher usage profile and pitching statistics. Through the literature review, we found the changes in the Chinese Professional Baseball League system. After the establishment of the minor team, the number of players that can be used by each team has gradually grown, so the selection and rotation of players is also more refined. The timeline of this research, I hope to understand the changes from year to year. In terms of data content, the game data of 8,128 regular games, 16,256 starting pitchers, and 51,505 pitchers were used as the main research objects to investigate the difference in pitcher usage among the two results of winning and losing. Whether there is a difference in the number of people used for victory and defeat under different conditions, and hope to establish an equation about the key factors of a pitcher's victory, so that the team can understand what the current pitcher should focus on in order to achieve the final goal of winning. The results of the study found that there were significant differences in the number of pitchers used by Chinese Professional Baseball League over the years, and the number of pitchers increased year by year. In the data related to win and lose, there are also significant differences in various data, it can be found that several pitcher-related values such as ball control and defense are showing an upward trend. Pitchers' pursuit of strikeouts to avoid the ball being hit has become one of the most important key technologies in the future.