球隊薪資對球隊績效影響之研究－以中華職棒為例

Abstract

職業球隊花大錢簽下明星球員是否能如願以償提升球隊戰績，球隊內的球員間薪資差異是否會影響球隊士氣，在國外已有許多用薪資及其他影響因素探討球隊績效的相關研究，但研究國內職業運動薪資差異與球隊勝率的文獻數量較少。本研究之目的為瞭解中華職棒球隊薪資總和及球隊內薪資差異是否會對球隊勝率產生影響。本研究參考過去國內外職業運動文獻，並考慮中華職棒環境，使用21個自變數。本研究之對象為中華職棒2011-2017年之四支球隊與球員，總共蒐集到1190筆本土選手資料，接著計算所需變數之後以一隊一季一筆為單位放入迴歸模型，總計28筆，透過描述性統計及多元迴歸分析中的向後消去法 (Backward Elimination Method) 進行分析。研究結果發現球隊總薪資對球隊勝率有正向的顯著影響；球隊內薪資差異對球隊勝率有負向的顯著影響；上一季勝率對球隊勝率有負向的顯著影響；上一季冠軍對球隊勝率有正向的顯著影響；球隊易主對球隊勝率有負向的顯著影響；更換教練對球隊勝率有負向的顯著影響；團隊攻擊指數對球隊勝率有正向的顯著影響；團隊自責分率對球隊勝率有負向的顯著影響；2016年賽季對球隊勝率有正向的顯著影響。最後提出結論及對聯盟、球團之建議。

The purpose of this research is to understand whether the total team payroll in Chinese Professional Baseball League and the salary disparity within the team affect the winning percentage of the team. There are 21 independent variables in this study. The study collected data from the four teams in CPBL from 2011 to 2017. There are 1190 local player data were collected. Then the required variables were calculated and put into the regression model with one team per year as a unit. The data were analyzed by descriptive statistics and Backward Elimination Method in multiple regression analysis. The results of the study show that the team's total salary has a significantly positive impact on the team's winning percentage; the salary diparity within the team has a significantly negative impact on the team's winning percentage; the previous season's winning rate has a significantly negative impact on the team's winning percentage; the last season's championship has a significantly positive impact on the team's winning percentage; the transfer of ownership has a significantly negative impact on the team's winning percentage; the change of coach has a significantly negative impact on the team's winning percentage; the team OPS has a significantly positive effect on the team's winning percentage; the team ERA has a significantly negative impact on the team’s win percentage; the 2016 season has a significantly positive impact on the team’s win percentage. Finally, the empirical results in this study provide suggestions for CPBL and the teams in CPBL.