金融風暴之後低利率政策與資本外移-以台灣為例
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2017
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本文嘗試捕捉央行低利率政策下,如何影響投資者的投資行為,以及資本的移動。本文鎖定於2008年金融海嘯後的台灣狀況為主。當景氣不佳時,經濟環境中存在侵蝕投資本金的風險,此時政府實施低利率政策期望增加投資意願,然而投資仍然低靡的原因為何?本文以訪談問卷方式,訪談的對象是18位有個人投資規劃的投資者。訪談的結果發現,景氣不佳的時候,政府會祭岀低利率政策吸引投資意願,然而,因為低利率對於投資者而言,僅是籌備投資的資金成本下降,況且景氣不佳的問題未被解決,因此低利率政策出現無效的現象。另一方面,景氣不佳的時候,受訪者感覺外在的經濟風險劇烈,並且此劇烈的風險氛圍會使得受訪者更覺得景氣狀況更差,如此狀況下投資收益損失的機會很高,甚至有可能損害投資本金,因此投資意願低靡。
Abstract When the economy is depression, there is the risks that erode the investment principal in the economic environment. At this time, the government will adopt a low interest rate policy to increase the investment willingness. However, what is the reason why the investment is still low? We interview 18 individuals who have investment planning. The results of the interview found that when the economy is depression, the government would offer a low interest rate policy to attract investment intentions. However, low interest rates for investors, only the cost of capital to prepare for investment fell, and the problem of depression economy not be disposed, so low interest rate policy appears invalid phenomenon. On the other hand, when the economy is depression, the respondents feel that the external economic risks that erode the principal, and risk will make the investors feel the economyis even worse, so the opportunity to lose high investment opportunities, So the investment will be low.
Abstract When the economy is depression, there is the risks that erode the investment principal in the economic environment. At this time, the government will adopt a low interest rate policy to increase the investment willingness. However, what is the reason why the investment is still low? We interview 18 individuals who have investment planning. The results of the interview found that when the economy is depression, the government would offer a low interest rate policy to attract investment intentions. However, low interest rates for investors, only the cost of capital to prepare for investment fell, and the problem of depression economy not be disposed, so low interest rate policy appears invalid phenomenon. On the other hand, when the economy is depression, the respondents feel that the external economic risks that erode the principal, and risk will make the investors feel the economyis even worse, so the opportunity to lose high investment opportunities, So the investment will be low.
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Keywords
風險, 利率, 景氣不佳, Risk, Interest, Economics Depression