男子單打網球競賽表現分析與動量趨勢探究—以2022年溫布敦網球公開賽決賽選手為例

Abstract

過去許多持拍類運動的大數據競賽研究，普遍著重在分數最後的結果，而非比賽過程的得失分和分數的關聯性，以及其他可能引發正向和負向動量(Momentum)的運動表現及情境，然而，這對於教練與選手而言是重要的議題，因此，本研究目的：探討NOVAK DJOKOVIC與NICK KYRGIOS在2022年溫布敦網球公開賽男子單打比賽中發球局的結果跟接下來的接發球局及發球局的表現結果是否有顯著的相關，以及決賽的綜合表現分析。研究方法：以2022年溫布敦網球公開賽NOVAK DJOKOVIC與NICK KYRGIOS以及兩者在決賽前對戰的所有對手之28場單打競賽表現作為樣本分析，探討發球局的輸贏結果對於下一局的表現是否有顯著差異，以及接發球者成功的破發表現對於接下來的發球局表現是否有顯著的相關，並分析決賽的綜合得失分表現指標。研究結果：在動量趨勢方面，Djokovic在未失分的表現情況下保住發球局對於下一局發球局的表現有重要的影響(p< .05)，Kyrgios則是在未失分、平分、面對破發點等表現情況下保住發球局對於下一局接發球局的表現以及下下一局發球局的表現有重要的影響(p < .05)。在決賽表現分析方面，Djokovic在發球與接發球之後各方面對峙表現優於Kyrgios( p<.05)。結論與建議：動量的趨勢在比賽中會影響選手最後比賽的氣勢與成績表現，建議選手與教練在比賽前應有相關的應對策略與心理建設。Most of the big data competition research in racket sports has often focused on the final point outcomes rather than the correlation between the process of the match, points gained or lost, and other events that may trigger positive or negative momentum. Therefore, this study aims to investigate whether there is a significant correlation between the serving outcomes of NOVAK DJOKOVIC and NICK KYRGIOS in the men's singles matches of the 2022 Wimbledon Championships and their subsequent performance in receiving and serving games, as well as an analysis of their overall performance in the final. Using the performances of NOVAK DJOKOVIC and NICK KYRGIOS in the 2022 Wimbledon Championships, along with their performances in all 28 singles matches against opponents before the final, the study analyzes whether the outcome of the serving game affects the outcome of the receiving and next serving games that followed. In terms of momentum trends, Djokovic's performance in holding serve games without conceding points has significantly impacted the subsequent serving performance (p < .05). For Kyrgios, holding serve without conceding points, deuce, or facing break points significantly influences the performance in the following receiving game and the next serving game (p < .05). In the analysis of final match performance, Djokovic's performance in both serving and receiving aspects surpasses Kyrgios (p < .05). Momentum trends during the match affect the athletes' overall momentum and performance. It is recommended that athletes and coaches develop relevant strategies and psychological preparations before matches to effectively respond to these trends.