探討退休族群辦理以房養老之因素分析

Abstract

有鑑於我國正面臨高齡化及少子化人口結構的快速改變，2025年將正式邁入超高齡社會，也就是說65歲以上人口占比將超過20% (468萬人)，預估2039年65歲以上人口占比超過30% (668萬人)，在物價、房價雙漲的趨勢下，衡量所得分配的吉尼係數亦日漸增加，透露出國人所得分配不均加劇。而隨著老人年金延後給付，產生退休族收入的缺口，同時面臨生活所需的支出費用日漸增加，因此本研究藉由敘述性統計、相關性分析、迴歸分析等，探討經濟面、消費面、房價趨勢面、人口結構面、勞動面及所得分配面等六項總體經濟指標變動，對退休族群辦理以房養老意願之影響，亦就是退休族群在面臨萬物皆漲、所得分配日益不均及扶老比增加的情況下，是否增加以房養老的需求，以提高穩定收入來源，並期能了解總體經濟變化對以房養老推行之顯著特性，補足我國逆向抵押貸款與總體經濟關係之研究缺口，進而對政府及金融機構推動以房養老政策有所助益。依據內政部最新統計，112年6月底65歲以上長者住宅數達到71.56萬宅，而透過以房養老的方式可將不動產活化轉換成年金方式增加年長者的收入來源，也能享有以房養老在宅老化的優點，提高長者退休生活品質。綜上，以退休族群辦理以房養老SWOT分析及以申請者、金融業及政府三方面提出建議。總體而言，政策的積極引導和金融機構的持續推動是以房養老成功推行的基礎，在高齡化的人口結構下，整體經濟環境的改變對高齡長者衝擊甚大，高齡物價壓力愈來愈大，年金制度仍屬不足，如何使長者能够更好地享受優質晚年生活維持財務穩定以降低政府的財政負擔，讓老者安之，是政策及金融機構持續努力的方向。

Given that our country is facing rapid changes in population structure due to aging and declining birth rates, 2025 will officially mark the transition to an ultra-aged society, with the proportion of people aged 65 and above exceeding 20% (4.68 million people). It is estimated that by 2039, the proportion of people aged 65 and above will exceed 30% (6.68 million people). Against the backdrop of rising prices and housing costs, the Gini coefficient measuring income distribution is also increasing, indicating worsening income inequality among the population. With the delay in pension payments for the elderly and increasing living expenses, there is a gap in retirement income, leading to a need for increased income sources among retirees.Therefore, this study employs descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, regression analysis, etc., to explore the impact of changes in six macroeconomic indicators—economic, consumption, housing price trends, population structure, labor, and income distribution—on the willingness of retirees to engage in reverse mortgage for elderly care. Specifically, it investigates whether, in the face of rising costs, worsening income distribution, and increasing elderly dependency ratios, there is a growing demand for reverse mortgage among retirees as a means to stabilize income sources. The study also aims to understand the significant characteristics of macroeconomic changes on the implementation of reverse mortgage, filling the research gap on the relationship between reverse mortgage and macroeconomics, and providing insights beneficial to the government and financial institutions in promoting reverse mortgage policies.According to the latest statistics from the Ministry of the Interior, as of June 2023, there were 715,600 residential units occupied by people aged 65 and above. Through the implementation of reverse mortgage, real estate can be activated and converted into annuities to increase income sources for the elderly, while enjoying the benefits of aging in place provided by reverse mortgage, thus enhancing the quality of life for retirees. In conclusion, a SWOT analysis of reverse mortgage for retirees is conducted, and recommendations are provided for applicants, financial institutions, and the government.Overall, proactive policy guidance and continuous promotion by financial institutions are the foundation for the successful implementation of reverse mortgage. Under an aging population structure, changes in the overall economic environment have a significant impact on the elderly, with increasing pressure from elderly living expenses and an inadequate pension system. Thus, efforts should be focused on enabling the elderly to enjoy a better quality of life in their later years, maintaining financial stability, and reducing the government's financial burden. This requires continued efforts from both policy and financial institutions.