從中國大陸對外經濟制裁的模式探討對臺經濟制裁項目的影響分析
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2018
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近年來，中國大陸經濟實力，國際影響力不斷增強，可以透過經濟制裁的手段，作為對外施壓及資訊傳遞的工具，來達到政治及外交的目的。自2016年臺灣政黨輪替，兩岸官方交流停擺，尤須要留意中國大陸對外的經貿政策。本研究從中國大陸對外經濟制裁的案例，像是中日釣魚台事件、中韓薩德事件以及中美貿易戰，分析中國大陸施行經濟制裁的可能作為及其效果，來探討可能對臺經濟制裁項目以及影響。
本研究發現中國對臺短期可能制裁的項目有演藝事業、觀光旅遊業、貿易百貨、農產品以及限制稀土進口到臺灣，分析對臺經濟影響程度，由於稀土是高科技產品的重要來源，所以對臺影響較大，第二是觀光旅遊業，第三是農產品；貿易百貨若從臺灣匯出中國大陸的總額占投入的股東權益總額來看，特力和台南-KY這兩家廠商比率高於50%，當中國人民進行抵制時，不但在大陸的投資歸零，也可能影響臺灣母公司的營運，屬於政治風險相對較高的公司；演藝事業則由於就業人口少，所以影響較小；至於汽車產業，中國大陸的大型乘用車廠大多都選擇了LG Chem和三星SDI兩家公司作為供應商，儘管動力電池廠商眾多，但能夠真正滿足技術要求、進入主流供應鏈的供應商並不多，因此，臺灣目前在這產業還未與大陸有密切的關係。此外，由於中國大陸進口替代的紅色供應鏈崛起，長期來說，會對臺灣半導體業產生衝擊。
In recent years, China has implemented economic sanctions against other countries for political purposes by utilizing its growing economical influence. Since party alternation in Taiwan in 2016, Chinese government has halted its official interaction with Taiwan, especially on economic affairs. This research reviews case studies of China’s economic sanction against other countries such as Senkaku islands dispute, Thaad issue and China-United States trade war, extends the analysis on studying how Chinese government implements economic sanctions and its effects, and explores the possible sanction items and influence of it. This research found that, in the short term, China may impose sanctions on entertainment industry, tourism industry, agriculture products and rare earth. According to our analysis, limited supply of rare earth will cause the most significant impact on technology industry in Taiwan, and then the tourism industry, and agriculture products. Based on the ratio of total export of retail industry to China to total shareholder equity, the ratios of the two companies, Test Rite International Co, Ltd. and Tainan Cayman, are more than 50 percent. As Chinese Government initiates sanctions, it will not only impact investments on branches in China, but will also affect headquarters in Taiwan. Therefore, Test Rite International Co, Ltd. and Tainan Cayman are under pretty high risk. In addition, entertainment industry will be less affected because there is relatively less population involved in entertainment industry. As for automobile industry, most of Chinese automobile corporations choose LG Chem and Samsung SDI to be the suppliers. Although there are many battery manufacturers in the market, few of them are able to meet the technical standard and enter the major supply chains. Hence, in automobile industry, Taiwan is not an important trading partner of China. Besides, China’s sanctions will affect Taiwan semiconductor industry in the long term due to the growing red supply chain.
In recent years, China has implemented economic sanctions against other countries for political purposes by utilizing its growing economical influence. Since party alternation in Taiwan in 2016, Chinese government has halted its official interaction with Taiwan, especially on economic affairs. This research reviews case studies of China’s economic sanction against other countries such as Senkaku islands dispute, Thaad issue and China-United States trade war, extends the analysis on studying how Chinese government implements economic sanctions and its effects, and explores the possible sanction items and influence of it. This research found that, in the short term, China may impose sanctions on entertainment industry, tourism industry, agriculture products and rare earth. According to our analysis, limited supply of rare earth will cause the most significant impact on technology industry in Taiwan, and then the tourism industry, and agriculture products. Based on the ratio of total export of retail industry to China to total shareholder equity, the ratios of the two companies, Test Rite International Co, Ltd. and Tainan Cayman, are more than 50 percent. As Chinese Government initiates sanctions, it will not only impact investments on branches in China, but will also affect headquarters in Taiwan. Therefore, Test Rite International Co, Ltd. and Tainan Cayman are under pretty high risk. In addition, entertainment industry will be less affected because there is relatively less population involved in entertainment industry. As for automobile industry, most of Chinese automobile corporations choose LG Chem and Samsung SDI to be the suppliers. Although there are many battery manufacturers in the market, few of them are able to meet the technical standard and enter the major supply chains. Hence, in automobile industry, Taiwan is not an important trading partner of China. Besides, China’s sanctions will affect Taiwan semiconductor industry in the long term due to the growing red supply chain.
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經濟制裁, 釣魚台事件, 薩德事件, 中美貿易戰, 兩岸經貿關係, Economic sanctions, Senkaku islands dispute, Thaad issue, China-United States trade war, Cross-strait economic and trade relations