川普經貿政策對臺資企業及在臺美商之影響分析
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2018
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2016年川普作為全球矚目的黑天鵝，當選了美國總統並積極實施製造業回流美國之政策。另外中國19大後，席捲全球的紅色供應鏈，更是企圖再提升中國製造業的全球地位。然而，對貿易依存度高、倚賴著眾多中小型企業的臺灣，將受到來自於全球供應鏈變動的衝擊。本研究將探討如何在美中臺供應鏈的巨浪下，找出一條臺灣所屬的道路?
首先透過次級資料的彙整，整理出投資帶動貿易效果逐漸式微的研究理論骨幹，並透過美中臺經貿的概況分析。進而探討出美中臺供應鏈的影響性，並說明其意涵。
其二，將研究主軸聚焦於臺美供應鏈，針對臺美各產業經貿、供應鏈現況，描繪出臺美供應鏈圖像、研析歸類出四類型臺資企業以及其面對川普政策可能遭遇的情況分析。並在此圖像與歸類架構下，深入探討臺灣大型企業、中小企業。
其三，委託鄧白氏運用其長年建構之企業資料庫，進行隨機抽樣電話調查，所得到的166家臺資企業及34家在臺美商企業有效問卷，進行樣本結構分析及排序性常態機率模型分析。
其四，綜合本研究調查結果，觀察到臺商赴美投資涵蓋層面可能涵蓋：物聯網、智慧機械（含機器人）、生技醫藥等新興產業。然，自川普上任以來，鴻海、台塑等業者已規劃擴大對美國投資面板、石化等產業，顯示在川普經貿政策與產業供應鏈重組的影響下，臺美雙邊投資標的與貿易型態亦將趨於多元化發展。另，結合臺資企業的迴歸模型分析，發現如果臺資企業屬於金屬機械業、或者有在開發中國家進行海外投資設廠佈局策略；如果臺資企業認為川普政策會帶來經濟刺激、去全球化等效果、基礎建設擴張效果、能源價格降低效果，將會影響其對川普政策的認知程度。
最後，本研究擬出對政府以及企業的前瞻性強化臺美供應鏈策略，如下:
1. 爭取與美方洽簽避免雙重課稅協定
2. 協助廠商於法規面、資訊面、人才面等諮詢需求
3. 鼓勵臺商赴美投資於新興產業領域
4. 鼓勵臺商回臺投資
5. 持續推動法規鬆綁工程，促進臺美產業鏈結與人才流動
6. 避免對單一市場過度依賴及產業過度單一等問題
7. 鼓勵臺灣跨國企業供應鏈整合
In 2016, Trump, as the world's black geese, was selected as the President of the United States. Trump actively implements the policy of returning manufacturing to the United States. In addition, after China's 19th National Congress, the red supply chain sweeping the world is also trying to enhance the global status of China's manufacturing industry. However, Taiwan, which is highly dependent on trade and relies on many small and medium-sized enterprises, will be affected by changes in global supply chains. This study will explore how to find a road to Taiwan under the huge waves of the US-China-Taiwan supply chain. First of all, through the consolidation of secondary data, we sorted out the theoretical concept of investment-driven trade effects. Analyze the situation through the US-China-Taiwan trade. Then we will discuss the imagery of the US-China-Taiwan supply chain for Taiwanese companies and explain its implications. Second, focus the research spindle on the US-Taiwan supply chain. In view of the current economic and trade and supply chain status of various industries in Taiwan and the United States, we have mapped out the supply chain images of Taiwan and the United States, and analyzed the four types of Taiwan-funded enterprises and their analysis of the situation that may be encountered in the face of Trump policies. Under this image and classification structure, we will explore in depth Taiwan's large enterprises and medium enterprises.. Third, entrust Dun& Bradstreet to conduct a random sample telephone survey using it’s long-established enterprise database. The 166 Taiwan-funded enterprises and 34 valid questionnaires in Taiwanese companies were selected for sample structure analysis and sorting normal probability model analysis. Fourth, based on the results of this research, it is observed that the coverage of Taiwanese investment in the United States may cover emerging industries such as the Internet of Things, smart machinery (including robots), and biotechnology and medicine. However, since Trump took office, Foxconn company, Formosa Plastics company and other companies have planned to expand their investment in the US, such as panel and petrochemical industries. In addition, combined with the regression model analysis of Taiwan-funded enterprises, it is found that if Taiwan-funded enterprises belong to the metal machinery industry, or if they have developed overseas investment in setting up factories, if Taiwan-funded enterprises think that Trump policies will bring economic stimulus, Counteracting the effects of globalization, infrastructure expansion, and energy price reduction will affect its awareness of Trump policies. Finally, this study proposes a forward-looking strengthening of the US and US supply chain strategy for the government and enterprises, as follows: 1. Try to negotiate with the United States to avoid double taxation agreement 2. Assist manufacturers in consulting requirements such as regulations, information, and talents 3. Encouraging Taiwanese businessmen to invest in the United States in emerging industries 4. Encouraging Taiwanese businessmen to return to Taiwan 5. Continuing to promote the loosening of laws and regulations to promote the industrial chain and talent flow in Taiwan and the United States 6. Avoid excessive reliance on the single market and excessive single industry issues 7. Encourage the Integration of Supply Chain in Multinational Enterprises in Taiwan
In 2016, Trump, as the world's black geese, was selected as the President of the United States. Trump actively implements the policy of returning manufacturing to the United States. In addition, after China's 19th National Congress, the red supply chain sweeping the world is also trying to enhance the global status of China's manufacturing industry. However, Taiwan, which is highly dependent on trade and relies on many small and medium-sized enterprises, will be affected by changes in global supply chains. This study will explore how to find a road to Taiwan under the huge waves of the US-China-Taiwan supply chain. First of all, through the consolidation of secondary data, we sorted out the theoretical concept of investment-driven trade effects. Analyze the situation through the US-China-Taiwan trade. Then we will discuss the imagery of the US-China-Taiwan supply chain for Taiwanese companies and explain its implications. Second, focus the research spindle on the US-Taiwan supply chain. In view of the current economic and trade and supply chain status of various industries in Taiwan and the United States, we have mapped out the supply chain images of Taiwan and the United States, and analyzed the four types of Taiwan-funded enterprises and their analysis of the situation that may be encountered in the face of Trump policies. Under this image and classification structure, we will explore in depth Taiwan's large enterprises and medium enterprises.. Third, entrust Dun& Bradstreet to conduct a random sample telephone survey using it’s long-established enterprise database. The 166 Taiwan-funded enterprises and 34 valid questionnaires in Taiwanese companies were selected for sample structure analysis and sorting normal probability model analysis. Fourth, based on the results of this research, it is observed that the coverage of Taiwanese investment in the United States may cover emerging industries such as the Internet of Things, smart machinery (including robots), and biotechnology and medicine. However, since Trump took office, Foxconn company, Formosa Plastics company and other companies have planned to expand their investment in the US, such as panel and petrochemical industries. In addition, combined with the regression model analysis of Taiwan-funded enterprises, it is found that if Taiwan-funded enterprises belong to the metal machinery industry, or if they have developed overseas investment in setting up factories, if Taiwan-funded enterprises think that Trump policies will bring economic stimulus, Counteracting the effects of globalization, infrastructure expansion, and energy price reduction will affect its awareness of Trump policies. Finally, this study proposes a forward-looking strengthening of the US and US supply chain strategy for the government and enterprises, as follows: 1. Try to negotiate with the United States to avoid double taxation agreement 2. Assist manufacturers in consulting requirements such as regulations, information, and talents 3. Encouraging Taiwanese businessmen to invest in the United States in emerging industries 4. Encouraging Taiwanese businessmen to return to Taiwan 5. Continuing to promote the loosening of laws and regulations to promote the industrial chain and talent flow in Taiwan and the United States 6. Avoid excessive reliance on the single market and excessive single industry issues 7. Encourage the Integration of Supply Chain in Multinational Enterprises in Taiwan
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Keywords
強化臺美供應鏈, 排序性常態機率模型, 川普政策, 製造業回流, 認知度模型, 臺資企業, 在臺美商, Strengthen the Taiwan-US supply chain, ordinal probit model, Trump policy, manufacturing backflow, recognition model, Taiwan-funded Enterprises, American-funded Enterprises in Taiwan