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Title: A Study of the Secular Temperature Increase in Taiwan Compared with Global Warming
Other Titles: 台灣地區現代氣溫上升現象與全球暖化比較的研究
Authors: 陳國彥
Issue Date: Nov-1999
Publisher: 地理學系
Department of Geography, NTNU
Abstract: 本文藉台灣中央氣象局的五個氣象站的月均溫與年均溫資料,來分析台灣地區現代(1897-1997)氣溫變化趨勢,並與同期的世界氣溫變化趨勢進行比較。本文首先檢定各站氣象資料序列的一致性程度,然後以低通濾波、趨勢分析、頻譜分析、主成分分析等統計方法,來探討台灣地區的現代氣溫變化趨勢。分析結果顯示在現代(1897-1997),五個氣象站的所錄得的氣溫均有明顯的上昇趨勢,其中以夏季氣溫的上昇最為強烈。五個氣象站的氣溫資料在透過主成分分析後,可降維為一個由筆者命名為「全台灣氣溫序列」(all Taiwan temperature series )的主成分,此主成分所代表的台灣地區現代(1897-1997)的氣溫上昇趨勢是甚為明顯的,達1.14℃,較同時期全球氣溫的上昇值高出0.60℃,約為全球氣溫上昇值的兩倍。在台灣地區的現代氣溫上昇趨勢中,有些時期的氣溫變化週期與艾尼紐∕南方振盪及準二年振盪(QBO)具有遙相關。
Monthly temperature data of five meteorological stations under the Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan were analysed over the longest available observation period (101years, 1897-1997), aiming to detect recent temperature changes in Taiwan and to compare the observations with global warming. After testing the homogeneity of the data series, different statistical meth-ods, such as low-pass filtering, trend analysis, spectral analysis, and principal component analy-sis, were applied to analyse recent temperature changes in Taiwan. As a result, temperatures have strikingly increased at all five stations over the secular period. Season-wise, the strongest increase was observed during summer. An "All-Taiwan Temperature Series" was constructed to have a long and reliable area mean temperature time series for whole Taiwan applying principal component analysis. Notably to see is the strong and significant temperature increase of 1.14℃ over the period 1897-1997, whereas the global temperatures show an increase of only 0.60℃ over the same period. Most strikingly to note that temperatures in Taiwan have increased double compared with glob-al warming.Over the whole observation period also some regular fluctuations of temperature were detected which can be related to the teleconnection El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation phenomenon and the quasi-biennual-oscillation.
Other Identifiers: 372919DB-153D-5AAC-2E0F-9A33A5534A8C
Appears in Collections:地理研究

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