應用TCCIP資料分析蘭陽溪流域降雨及溫度變化趨勢

Abstract

氣候變遷改變全球水文型態，降雨為重要的水資源來源，同時亦可能是關鍵致災因子，而台灣目前面臨水資源短缺以及用水需求增加的困境中，未來亦面對較高的氣候風險。蘭陽溪為宜蘭縣重要的水資源來源，流域內常發生氣候災害，未來氣候亦有所改變，因而需要了解降雨特性方能為水資源管理及災害防治提供重要決策資訊。雖然相關氣候資料之趨勢分析已有大量相關研究，但隨著氣象資料的完善及趨勢分析方法之改進，有望提供更準確之趨勢結果。因此本研究以蘭陽溪流域為研究區域，利用臺灣氣候變遷推估資訊與調適知識平台(Taiwan Climate Change Projection Information and Adaptation Knowledge Platform ,TCCIP)所提供之網格化氣象資料，以傳統的Mann-Kendall檢定及Theil-Sen斜率檢定搭配近年新興的Innovative Trend Analysis(ITA)，探討蘭陽溪流域之降雨及氣溫之趨勢變化狀況。研究結果顯示，蘭陽溪流域之降雨量在4月、12月及春季顯著增加。氣溫方面，平均溫無顯著增減趨勢；最高溫在9月、10月、12月、秋季及年尺度顯著減少；最低溫除4月外，皆為顯著增加的趨勢，說明蘭陽溪流域之降雨量、最高溫及最低溫有所改變，而降雨量、溫度及相關因素的相互作用及影響仍有待探討，研究結果可供經營管理單位或後續學術研究使用。The global hydrological pattern changed because of climate change. Rainfall is an important source of water resources but also can be the trigger of disaster. Taiwan is currently facing the predicament of water shortage and increasing demand for water, and it will also face higher climate risks in the future. LanYang River is an important source of water resources in Yilan, but climate disasters often occur in the basin, and the climate will change in the future. Therefore, it is necessary to understand the characteristics of precipitation to provide important decision-making information for water resource management and disaster prevention. Although there have been a lot of research on trend analysis of relevant climate data, but with the improvement of meteorological data and trend analysis methods, it is expected to provide results more accurately. Therefore, this study takes LanYang River Basin as the research area, using the gridded meteorological data provided by the Taiwan Climate Change Projection Information and Adaptation Knowledge Platform (TCCIP), with the traditional Mann- The Kendall test and Theil-Sen slope test are combined with Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA), which has emerged in recent years, to explore the trends of rainfall and temperature in the LanYang River Basin.The results show that the precipitation in the LanYang River Basin increased significantly in April, December and spring. In terms of temperature, the average temperature has no significant increase or decrease trend. The Maximum temperature decreases significantly in September, October, December, autumn and on annual scale. The minimum temperature showed a significant increase trend except for April. It indicating that the rainfall, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature in LanYang River Basin have changed but interaction and impact of rainfall, temperature, and related factors still need to be explored. The results can be used by management units or subsequent academic research.