射擊運動賽制改變對選手成績之影響_ 以2004至2024奧運會空氣槍選手為例

Abstract

本研究主要探討射擊運動政策中的賽制改變對參賽選手運動成績的影響，並分析國際射擊運動聯盟(ISSF, International Shooting Sport Federation)於 2012年奧運會後開始實施：資格賽成績不帶入決賽，決賽採取淘汰制等賽制改變。收集 2004年至 2024年間奧運期間運動員表現成績，分析賽制改變前後與選手成績之間的相關性。研究目的為探討射擊運動賽制改變對選手成績、排名的影響。研究對象為10公尺空氣手、步槍奧運選手。樣本區間為 2004年至2024年間 6 屆奧運，採計資格賽成績、資格賽排名、決賽成績、決賽排名共4項，選手性別及年齡共2項數據。透過ISSF官方網站所提供之選手成績數據蒐集至Microsoft Excel進行統整，並採用SPSS29.0 軟體進行分析統計，使用描述性統計及t檢測定，並以α.05為顯著水準進行統計考驗分析。研究結果顯示，賽制改變對選手的資格賽與決賽成績均產生顯著影響。新賽制提高了技術要求，使資格賽平均分數顯著提升，並加劇高低分群的分化。決賽成績在過渡期稍有下降，但隨後因選手適應而回升，選手競爭更加激烈。在性別方面，賽制改革提升了男女選手的資格賽分數，但未改變性別成績差距，決賽成績亦未呈現顯著性別差異。年齡組別分析顯示，資格賽成績隨年齡增加而下降，青年組表現最佳，壯年組次之，年長組最低，且改革後資格賽成績皆明顯提升；而決賽成績則未受年齡組別顯著影響。槍種方面，步槍項目在資格賽與決賽中均表現優於手槍，改革後步槍選手適應能力更為突出，顯示其在新賽制下的潛力。賽制改變並未對大多數國家晉級機會產生大規模影響。整體而言，賽制改革達成提升成績與競爭性的目標，但也加劇了成績差距。This study examines how changes in shooting sport regulations affect athletes’ performance, focusing on the International Shooting Sport Federation reforms implemented after the 2012 Olympics. Key changes included excluding preliminary scores from the finals and adopting an elimination format. Athlete results from six Olympic Games (2004–2024) were collected and used to analyze performance before and after these system changes. The sample comprised Olympic athletes in the 10 m air pistol and 10 m air rifle events. Official results were compiled in Microsoft Excel and analyzed in SPSS 29.0. Descriptive statistics, least-squares methods, and statistical tests were conducted with a significance level of α = .05. Findings indicate that the revised competition system significantly influenced both qualifying and final outcomes. The reforms raised technical demands, increased average qualifying scores, and widened the spread between high and low scores. Finals performance dipped during the transition period but rebounded as athletes adapted, with competition intensity increasing over time. By gender, reforms improved qualifying scores for both men and women but did not alter the gender gap; final scores showed no significant gender differences. Age-group analysis showed that qualifying performance declines with age: the youth group performed best, followed by the middle-aged group, with the oldest group performing lowest. Qualifying results improved significantly after the reforms, whereas final results were not significantly affected by age. By event, rifle outperformed pistol in both qualifying and finals, and rifle athletes displayed greater adaptability under the new system. Overall, the reforms enhanced performance and competitiveness but also exacerbated performance disparities.