政治極化如何形成－以台灣為例

Abstract

臺灣的政治歷史中，主要為國民黨與民進黨在互相抗衡，在兩黨獨大的情況下，政治極化的現象愈演愈烈對於社會將帶來負面的影響。民眾會因為政治菁英訴諸情感、同溫層間的感染而提高政治活動參與程度。在民眾參與政治活動的過程中，立場的對立就容易產生衝突，立場兩端的群體互相謾罵與不認同，即是政治兩極分化對社會帶來的危害。本研究主要以臺灣地區為研究對象，以1994年至2019年的總統選舉、直轄市長選舉、縣市長選舉和立委選舉作為政治極化指數衡量的選舉層級。模型納入經濟面與社會面的因素，包含衡量所得不均的吉尼指數，與社會面的每萬人口醫院病床數、青壯年人口、老年人口、教育程度等因子，探討是何種原因使得政治極化更嚴重。本文使用追蹤資料的固定效果模型與隨機效果模型做實證研究，結果發現吉尼指數在臺灣只有在直轄市長選舉的情況下對政治極化有顯著的正向影響。並且在縣市長選舉層級下，本篇論文的研究的假設才有比較好的體現，顯示出每萬人口醫院病床數、教育程度在高中以上、青壯年人口、老年人口等社會極化現象對政治極化會有顯著的影響，代表經濟極化之吉尼指數則是落遲一期會對政治極化有顯著影響，北部相較中部和東部會有較嚴重的政治極化，且政治極化會隨著時間而增加。In the political history of Taiwan, the KMT and the DPP fought against each other. Under the approximate two-party system, the phenomenon of increasing political polarization would bring negative effects on the society. People will increase their participation in political activities because the political elite appeals to emotion and the infection between the echo chamber. In the process of people's participation in political activities, the opposition of positions is prone to conflicts. Groups at both ends of the positions abuse and disapprove each other, which is the harm that political polarization brings to the society. This study mainly takes Taiwan as the research object, and takes the presidential election, municipal mayor election, country and city mayor election and legislature election from 1994 to 2019 as the election hierarchy measured by the political polarization index. Economic and social factors were included in the model, including the Gini index to measure income inequality. The number of hospital beds per 10,000 population, young and middle-aged population, elderly population, education level and other factors related to social aspects. Explore the reasons for increasing political polarization. Using the fixed effect model and random effect model of panel data, this paper finds that the Gini index has a significant positive effect on political polarization only in the election of municipal mayor in Taiwan. Moreover, the hypothesis of the research is better reflected at the country and city mayor election. The results show that the number of hospital beds per 10,000 population, the education level above high school, the young and middle-aged population, the elderly population and other social polarization phenomena have a significant impact on the political polarization. Gini index of economic polarization also have a significant impact on political polarization with one period lag. Compared with the central and eastern regions, the north has a more serious political polarization. Moreover, the political polarization will increase with time.