美國川普政府發動美中貿易戰決策之研究

Abstract

美國總統川普（Donald John Trump）2017年上任後，首要任務為促使製造業回流美國、平衡美中貿易逆差、並遏止中國對美國知識產權的侵害，為達成施政目標，川普任內發起對中國的貿易戰，也是21世紀美、中兩國最大的衝突。 本論文以美國學者艾利森（Graham Allison）所著之《Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis》書中提出之三種決策模式做為分析架構，分別以理性模式、組織行為模式與政府政治模式分析川普個人與其幕僚是如何做出美中貿易戰的決策。 本論文發現：第一、川普個人意識形態鮮明，個人決策主要受到鷹派幕僚影響；第二、美國白宮幕僚辦公室為決策核心單位，具有高度的執行靈活度；第三、川普運用意識形態相近的幕僚，貿易戰核心決策幕僚同質性高，能有效率地執行各項貿易戰事務；第四、川普發動美中貿易戰主要目的為鞏固其領導權力，並尋求於2020年美國總統大選中連任。After taking office in 2017, President Donald Trump’s mission is clear: to promote the manufacturing industry return to the United States, balance the US-China trade deficit, and stop China from infringing on U.S. intellectual property. To deliver campaign promises, President Donald Trump initiated a trade war against China, which is the biggest conflict between the United States and China in the 21st century. The present thesis focused on how U.S.-China trade war decisions were made by applying the rational model, organizational behavior model, and government politics model, which were proposed in "Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis" by Graham Allison. By utilizing decision-making models, the present thesis analyzed how President Trump and his cabinet members made trade war decisions. The result showed that, first, Trump ’s ideology is distinct, and his personal decisions are mainly influenced by his hawkish staff; second, the White House Office is the core trade war decision-making unit and has a high degree of flexibility in execution; third, the ideology of Trump and his staff is highly homogeneous and can effectively execute various trade war affairs; fourth, Trump ’s main purpose in launching the U.S.-China trade war is to consolidate his leadership and re-election in the 2020 US presidential election.