中共政治繼承佈局與菁英甄補之研究—以「十七大」政治局為例

Abstract

過去毛澤東和鄧小平都曾憑藉著革命經歷和個人特質為其帶來無人能敵的政治威望，直接指定在其之後的接班人選，致使政治繼承在這個時期不僅充滿了高度的人治色彩且派系鬥爭激烈，導致政治局勢動盪不安，嚴重耗損中共政治菁英。為了讓接班過程能夠平穩和順暢，權力繼承與菁英甄補在鄧小平「有意」的推動之下，開始有了些許的「規範」。 隨著時代的變遷與政治老人的逐漸凋零，已讓政治強人逐漸退出中國政治。而且，在客觀環境因素的考量下，未來出現政治強人的機率也已經大幅降低。因此，我們注意到的是，胡錦濤和前代的江澤民都是由「政治強人」鄧小平所指定的接班人選，未來中共的領導人將會如何產生，是一個相當值得研究的問題。2007年10月，中共召開了「第十七屆全國代表大會」，會中除了施政報告和制訂未來方針外，另一項重點就是人事的安排。按照慣例，胡錦濤會於「十八大」時，卸下中共最高領導人的職務，而提前安排下一代領導梯隊進入權力核心，是中共培養接班人的作法，這無疑說明了「十七大」的重要性，所以本文將在此前提之下進行研究。 但是，若僅憑「十七大」的人事安排來探究中共菁英甄補的規範，將無法全面性地了解中共菁英甄補的演變，以至於容易出現以偏概全的缺失。所以本文將透過歷史的回顧，探究中共自「十四大」以來，政治菁英甄補規則的發展或制度的累積，再以此分析「十七大」的人事安排有何意涵，而欲進入中共權力核心需要何種條件或是受到哪些規範限制，都是本文的研究重點。

In the past, Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping both had the advantage in their revolutionary experience and personal traits, which brought them an invincible political prestige. They both designated their successors directly, which resulted in a fierce political succession that not only caused a strong man-based rule, but also lead to a serious depletion of the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) political elite. In order to have a smooth succession process, succession of power and elite complements were given impetus by Deng Xiaoping’s “intention,” and which began with some “norms.” With the changing of time and senior politicians dying, the political strongmen are gradually withdrawing from Chinese politics. For objective consideration of environmental factors, the probability of generating a future political strongman has also been significantly reduced. Therefore, we note that the successor Hu Jintao and the previous generation of Jiang Zemin were selected by political strongman Deng Xiaoping. Hence, how to develop future Chinese leaders will be a problem that is important to study. In October of 2007, the CCP convened the Seventeenth Session of the National Congress. In addition to addressing policy and formulating future direction, personnel arrangements was another focus of this convention. By rule, Hu Jintao will leave his duties to the top party leaders at the Eighteenth Session and will arrange for the next generation of leadership to have their core power in advance. This may strengthen the importance of the Seventeenth Session, and this thesis has based its study upon this premise. However, exploring the elite recruitment norms from the Seventeenth’s personnel arrangements alone would allow us to have a comprehensive understanding of the evolution of the elite complement, and it may be prone to overgeneralization. Therefore, this article conducts a historical review by investigating Communist China’s accumulated development of the political elite recruitment rules or system since the Fourteenth Congress. Additionally, this article also focuses on analyzing what practical implications of personnel arrangements in the Seventeenth Congress are, and what conditions need to be had or what norms were limited to allow for the CCP’s core power.