電子業出口額、中國經濟指標對台灣加權股價指數的影響

Abstract

電子業出口額因整體公司市值較高，容易影響台灣加權股價指數，此外電子業同時也是台灣出口的主力商品，而中國大陸是台灣電子業出口貿易額最大的地區，人民幣對台幣的匯率，及中國的經濟情勢影響台灣出口貿易甚巨，本文以五項電子業出口額、人民幣對台幣匯率、中國總經指標對台灣加權股價指數進行多元線性迴歸分析，實證結果顯示人民幣對台幣匯率、中國貨幣市場報價利率、中國工業生產指數對台灣加權股價指數具有顯著關係，其中人民幣對台幣匯率、中國工業生產指數對台灣加權股價指數為正相關、中國貨幣市場報價利率對台灣加權股價指數則為負相關，而所有電子業出口額變數皆對台灣加權股價指數都沒有顯著影響，這是沒有預料到的結果；另挑選出的中國貨幣市場報價利率、中國工業生產指數兩個中國總經指標以及人民幣對台幣匯率皆對台灣加權股價指數有顯著影響，這顯示台灣對中國大陸貿易依賴度高，且匯率顯著影響出口，故這三個變數可以當作預測台灣股市的變化的參考依據。The export value of the electronics industry not only affects Taiwan’s weighted stock index(TAIEX) due to the high market capitalization of the company, but also is the main commodity of Taiwan’s exports, and mainland China is the largest export trading area of Taiwan's electronics industry. In this paper, we conducted a multivariate linear regression analysis of the five electronic exports, the exchange rate of the RMB to the new Taiwan dollar, and multiple macroeconomic indexes of China on the TAIEX. The empirical results show that the five electronic exports don’t have a significant relationship with the TAIEX; however, the exchange rate of RMB to TWD, the quoted interest rate of China money market, and the index of China industrial production have a significant relationship with the TAIEX. The results indicate that Taiwan economy is highly dependent on trade with China and the exchange rate significantly affects exports, so these three variables above can be used as references for predicting changes in the Taiwan stock market.