以模糊實質選擇權、賽局理論暨多準則決策分析評估太陽能系統建置與維運公司投資案

Abstract

隨著聯合國將淨零排放作為永續發展目標，全球各主要國家或經濟體開始積極規範使用再生能源之比例，國際大廠對供應商購買或投資綠色能源之要求日益嚴格，造成可再生能源之需求日增，因此，諸多企業開始投入再生能源發展，使得全球綠能投資金額快速增長。在各種綠色能源之中，太陽能發電系統由於技術相對成熟，建置與維運佔各類投資案之比重極高，為可再生能源廠商積極投入的市場之一。雖然如此，相關的研究卻極為有限，考慮廠商未來投資成本、競爭關係與評估投資案的相關研究極少，考慮投資金額不確定性之研究更為罕見，但相關投資專案於創投界卻十分普遍。為跨越研究缺口，本研究導入模糊實質選擇權評價法、模糊三人零和賽局、與多準則決策分析之決策架構。首先，本研究以模糊實質選擇權評價標的公司於未來五年不同情境之投資策略，並評估其收益，其後，導入模糊零和賽局，分析三家競爭公司競爭下之顯著解，並將整合模糊實質選擇權與模糊三人零和賽局所得之結果，導入基於決策實驗室分析法（Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory，DEMATEL）之網路層級分析法（DEMATEL based Analytic Network Process，DANP）後，整合多準則妥協解法 (VlseKriter-jumska optimizacija I KOmpromisno Resenje， VIKOR），選取最適之太陽能系統建置與維運公司投資案。本研究以臺灣三家太陽能系統建置與維運公司為標的，邀集我國創投界專家提供意見，實證本分析架構之可行性。依據模糊實質選擇權所得之結果評價出三間企業之價值，而將模糊實質選擇權所得之結果，導入模糊賽局，當三家廠商在同時投資時，可達納許均衡。最後，將三家廠商之模糊收益導入多準則決策分析架構，可得最具影響關係之權重為長期性風險（c102），影響權重最高之構面為管理階層本質（D1），而獲投資廠商，由於Y公司等構面加權得分最高，距離渴望水準最短，獲得專家青睞。 本驗證完善之分析架構，可作為未來政府或金融機構評估新能源建置為運案之用，而針對太陽能系統建置與維運公司之評估結果，亦可為政府或創投業所用。As the United Nations has made net zero emissions a sustainable development goal, major countries or economies around the world have begun to actively regulate the proportion of renewable energy used. International manufacturers have increasingly stringent requirements for suppliers to purchase or invest in green energy, resulting in a gap in renewable energy. Demand is increasing day by day. Therefore, many companies have begun to invest in the development of renewable energy, which has led to a rapid increase in the amount of global green energy investment. Among all kinds of green energy, solar power generation system is one of the markets that renewable energy manufacturers are actively investing in due to its relatively mature technology, and its construction and operation account for a very high proportion of various investment projects.Even so, the relevant research is extremely limited. There are very few related studies that consider the future investment costs of manufacturers, competitive relations, and evaluation of investment projects. Research that considers the uncertainty of investment amounts is even rarer. However, related investment projects are very rare in the venture capital circle. common. In order to bridge the research gap, this study introduces the decision framework of fuzzy real option evaluation method, fuzzy three-person zero-sum game, and multi-criteria decision analysis. First, this study uses the fuzzy real option to evaluate the target company’s investment strategy in different scenarios in the next five years, and evaluates its returns. Then, it introduces the fuzzy zero-sum game, analyzes the significant solutions under the competition of three competing companies, and integrates The results obtained from the fuzzy real option and fuzzy three-person zero-sum games were imported into the Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL)-based Network Hierarchy Analysis (DEMATEL based Analytic Network Process, DANP), and integrated Multi-criteria compromise solution (VlseKriter-jumska optimizacija I KOmpromisno Resenje, VIKOR), select the most suitable investment project for solar energy system construction and operation companies.This study takes three solar energy system construction and operation companies in Taiwan as the targets, and invites experts from the venture capital industry in my country to provide opinions to demonstrate the feasibility of this analysis framework. Evaluate the value of the three companies based on the results obtained from the fuzzy real options, and import the results obtained from the fuzzy real options into the fuzzy game. When the three manufacturers invest at the same time, a Nash equilibrium can be achieved. Finally, importing the fuzzy payoff of the three manufacturers into the multi-criteria decision analysis framework, the weight of the most influential relationship is long-term risk (c102), and the dimension with the highest influence weight is the essence of the management class (D1). Since Company Y and other facets have the highest weighted score and the shortest distance to desire level, it is favored by experts. The well-established analysis framework of this verification can be used by the government or financial institutions to evaluate new energy construction and operation projects in the future, and the evaluation results of solar energy system construction and operation companies can also be used by the government or venture capital industry.