共同基金業務對分析師盈餘預測行為之影響─以中國為例

Abstract

本研究旨在探討中國綜合型證券商共同基金業務對所屬研究部門盈餘預測行為之影響。本研究檢視關聯證券商研究部門對關聯共同基金所持股票是否追蹤程度較高、修正次數較多及盈餘預測較樂觀偏頗，此外，本研究檢視關聯證券商研究部門分析師盈餘預測報告對關聯共同基金調整持股比重之影響為何。 實證結果顯示，關聯研究機構對關聯共同基金所持有的股票追蹤程度較高。此外，關聯研究機構對關聯共同基金的持股提供較多次的盈餘預測修正及較樂觀的盈餘預測報告。特別地，關聯共同基金持股比重高之股票，關聯證券商研究機構的盈餘預測顯著較樂觀。另外，關聯共同基金調整持股比重之方向並未與關聯分析師盈餘預測樂觀程度有顯著關聯。This study investigates whether research departments are motivated to cover those stocks in which the affiliated mutual funds have invested. Furthermore, this study examines whether a mutual fund’s stock holdings affect the frequency and optimism of the research produced by analysts affiliated with the mutual fund. Finally, this study examines how the optimism of earnings forecasts issued by analysts affiliated with the mutual fund affects the change of the mutual funds’ portfolio weights. The empirical results reveal that the mutual fund affiliation affects research departments’ decisions to cover a stock. Moreover, the frequency of forecast revisions and the optimism of the earnings forecasts are significantly affected by the affiliated mutual fund’s stock holdings. We also find that the greater the affiliated mutual funds weigh a stock in their portfolios, the higher the analyst optimism. However, the optimism of earnings forecasts issued by analysts affiliated with the mutual fund does not affect the change of the mutual funds’ portfolio weights.