盈餘管理對當地分析師盈餘預測優勢之影響

Abstract

隨著中國股市蓬勃發展，國際投資者紛紛關注中國股市，這些外國機構投資人多數根據外國券商所提供研究報告進行投資決策。然而既有文獻並未檢視當中國分析師與外國券商分析師追蹤同一家中國上市公司時，影響中國與外國分析師盈餘預測準確性因素為何。本研究旨在於探討（1）盈餘管理對分析師盈餘預測準確性影響。（2）中國上市公司盈餘管理對中國分析師和外國分析師盈餘預測準確性影響。本研究實證結果顯示，盈餘管理對分析師盈餘預測具有顯著的影響，盈餘管理程度愈嚴重的公司，研究該公司之分析師盈餘預測誤差愈大。然而，在本國分析師和外國分析師盈餘預測準確性的比較，本國分析師盈餘預測準確性並未顯著高於外國分析師。

關鍵字：盈餘預測準確、當地分析師優勢、盈餘管理Foreign institutional investors became more interested in stock markets in China. Most of foreign institutional investors rely on the research reports provided by foreign analysts working for foreign brokerages. The relative forecast accuracy between local analysts in China and foreign analysts became an important issue. However, no studies investigate under what circumstances the local analysts in China have forecast accuracy advantage. To fill the gap, this study investigates the linkage between analysts’ forecast accuracy and earnings management. Moreover, we examine whether the relative performance of local analysts in China and foreign analysts is affected by firms using different earnings management device. The empirical results indicate that analysts’ forecast accuracy is significantly affected by the extent of earnings management. However, there is no significant difference in forecast accuracy between local and foreign analysts.

Keywords: Forecast accuracy, local analysts’ advantages, earnings management