基於深度學習網路之農產品期貨價格預測模型

Abstract

在財務金融領域當中，預測金融商品價格一直是個研究者以及產業界所感興趣的主題。其中國際大宗原物料價格變動對於仰賴進出口的台灣經濟體系影響甚鉅，大型企業營運更深受原物料價格起伏所干擾，必須經常性地採取避險手段，將非營運因素的干擾降低。為了解決此問題，本研究蒐集芝加哥期貨商品交易所（Chicago Mercantile Exchange, CME）之原物料期貨資料為樣本，在本研究中以黃豆期貨為例，訓練類神經網路模型解決價格預測之問題。

研究結果顯示，對於充斥雜訊的金融時間序列資料，使用降噪自編碼器可以從期貨價格資料中提取出更具有代表性的潛在特徵。此類特徵有助於提升類神經網路模型價格預測之表現。而透過集成式學習的方法，對於不同的時間區間建立模型並且使模型間共同進行決策，能夠提高方向性預測準確度以及價格預測表現，進一步改進模型效能。

In the field of finance, forecasting financial instruments prices has always been a topic of interest to researchers and industry. The price changes of commodities have a great impact on Taiwan's economic system, which relies on imports and exports. Large-scale enterprise operations are more deeply disturbed by changes in the prices of raw materials, and it is necessary to regularly adopt hedging measures to reduce interference from nonoperational factors. In order to solve this problem, this study collects the agricultural futures data of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) as a sample, and trained the neural network model to solve the problem of price prediction.

The research results show that for financial data filled with noise, the use of denoise autoencoder can extract more representative features from the time series of futures price data. Such features help to improve the price prediction of neural network models. which performed. Through the ensemble learning method to establisha model pool to make decisions together, it can improve the prediction accuracy and improve the performance of the model.