美國量化寬鬆政策對中美貨幣權力關係之影響
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2015
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自布列敦森林體系瓦解以來，美元雖然仍是主宰世界經濟的重要貨幣，但已呈現許多疲態。從2001年開始，在中國經濟快速成長的同時，美國迫於經濟衰退的影響，開始強烈要求人民幣升值以解救國內經濟問題。2008年11月美國聯準會為了拯救美國的金融危機，展開了第一次的量化寬鬆政策，此後更逐步推行了第二次與第三次的量化寬鬆政策。
「量化寬鬆政策是否擁有提升美元貨幣權力並打擊人民幣貨幣權力的效果?」，此即本研究的問題意識，此問題又可分為兩個研究問題，分別為動機面的「美國是否有意圖要藉由量化寬鬆政策來打擊人民幣貨幣權力並提升美元貨幣權力?」與效果面的「美國的量化寬鬆政策確實導致人民幣貨幣權力降低並讓美元貨幣權力提升?」。
經過文獻與數據的資料分析後，本研究獲得以下六大發現：
在學術發展上發現「貨幣權力標準化之可能」與「貨幣權術為權力影響市場後再影響權力之途徑」。
在事實現象上發現「量化寬鬆政策為貨幣價值與流動性資產的貨幣權術」、「美國以量化寬鬆政策成功防禦自身部分貨幣權力流失」、「中國成功防禦量化寬鬆政策之影響避免自身部分貨幣權力流失」與「總體來看，美國的貨幣權力雖然仍是最強但正在減弱，反觀中國的貨幣權力正不斷增強」。
Since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the US dollar has remained the hard currency dominating the world economy; however, to some extent, appearing fatigued. Ever since 2011, with China’s economy soaring, influenced by economic recession, the U.S. has constantly requested China allow Renminbi (RMB) to appreciate so as to alleviate its domestic economic issues. In order to rescue the financial crisis in the U.S., the US Federal Reserve announced a first round of quantitative easing (QE) in November 2008, further announcing a second round in 2010 and a third round in 2013. The problematic of this study mainly focuses on－whether QE is able not only to increase the US dollar’s power but decrease RMB’s－which is to be divided into two research questions: one is, in motivation, whether the U.S. is inclined to do so; the other is, in effect, whether the US QE does work. According to the documentary analysis and statistics analysis, here are some main discoveries as follows: the possibility to standardize the monetary power, monetary statecraft as efforts to influence the policies of other states by consciously manipulating monetary relations, the QE as monetary statecraft of monetary value manipulating and assets financing, the success of the U.S. in preventing its monetary power from loss with the QE, the success of China in resisting the effects of the QE upon the loss of its monetary power, and the fact that the U.S.’s monetary power remains but fades while China’s is continuously growing in the total.
Since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the US dollar has remained the hard currency dominating the world economy; however, to some extent, appearing fatigued. Ever since 2011, with China’s economy soaring, influenced by economic recession, the U.S. has constantly requested China allow Renminbi (RMB) to appreciate so as to alleviate its domestic economic issues. In order to rescue the financial crisis in the U.S., the US Federal Reserve announced a first round of quantitative easing (QE) in November 2008, further announcing a second round in 2010 and a third round in 2013. The problematic of this study mainly focuses on－whether QE is able not only to increase the US dollar’s power but decrease RMB’s－which is to be divided into two research questions: one is, in motivation, whether the U.S. is inclined to do so; the other is, in effect, whether the US QE does work. According to the documentary analysis and statistics analysis, here are some main discoveries as follows: the possibility to standardize the monetary power, monetary statecraft as efforts to influence the policies of other states by consciously manipulating monetary relations, the QE as monetary statecraft of monetary value manipulating and assets financing, the success of the U.S. in preventing its monetary power from loss with the QE, the success of China in resisting the effects of the QE upon the loss of its monetary power, and the fact that the U.S.’s monetary power remains but fades while China’s is continuously growing in the total.
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人民幣, 貨幣權力, 量化寬鬆, 中美關係, 貨幣權術, 美元, Renminbi, Monetary Power, quantitative easing, the China-US relations, Monetary Statecraft, the US dollar