利用海氣耦合模式探討不同海洋條件對海燕(2013)颱風發展之影響
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2019
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海燕颱風（2013年）是一個強度破紀錄的颱風，其在2013年襲擊菲律賓並造成了許多傷亡和巨大的經濟損失。本研究運用COAWST模式(Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Wave Sediment Transport Modeling)，針對海燕颱風進行模擬，探討不同複雜程度耦合條件或不同年份的海洋背景條件對於海燕颱風路徑和強度的影響。結果顯示不同複雜程度耦合條件或不同年份的海洋背景條件，對颱風路徑的影響不大。然而，不同耦合條件下，對颱風強度的影響較為顯著，結果顯示，雙向耦合條件相對於其他條件所模擬出的颱風強度，與觀測資料更加吻合。此外，不同年份海洋背景環境對於颱風強度也有相當大的影響，儘管各個實驗有些微差異，但在2010年的海洋環境更加有利於颱風發展。此結果顯示在相同的大氣條件之下，海燕若生成於2010年將很有可能比實際發生在2013年的海燕更強，這表示即使海燕已經是極強烈之超級強颱，有很大進一步增強的可能性。最後，透過熱收支分析，我們發現，當北赤道反流（North Equatorial Counter Current, NECC）北移時，透過水平平流項熱傳輸，將南邊的熱向北傳輸，進而形成更有利於颱風發展的海洋環境，促使海燕颱風有進一步增強的可能性。
Typhoon Haiyan (2013) is a record-breaking typhoon that caused thousands of fatalities and large damages in the Philippines in November 2013. This study uses COAWST (Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Wave Sediment Transport Modeling) to simulate the typhoon Haiyan and explore the influences of different conditions on typhoon track and intensity. The results show that the coupling conditions of different complexity or the ocean background conditions of different years (2008-2013) have little effect on the typhoon track, but it will have a great impact on the intensity. The results show that the typhoon intensity simulated by the two-way coupling condition relative to other coupling conditions is more consistent with the observed data. In addition, the oceanic background environment in different years has a great impact on the typhoon intensity. Although the experiments are slightly different, the ocean environment in 2010 is more conducive to typhoon development. This result shows that under the same atmospheric conditions, Haiyan will probably be stronger in 2010 than the actual Haiyan in 2013, which means that even if Haiyan is already a very strong super strong station, it will be greatly enhanced. This study show that the NECC (North Equatorial Counter Current) transports heat into the development region of the Haiyan typhoon when the current northward shifts. The additional heat source provided by this horizontal advection that favors the development of the Haiyan typhoon.
Typhoon Haiyan (2013) is a record-breaking typhoon that caused thousands of fatalities and large damages in the Philippines in November 2013. This study uses COAWST (Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Wave Sediment Transport Modeling) to simulate the typhoon Haiyan and explore the influences of different conditions on typhoon track and intensity. The results show that the coupling conditions of different complexity or the ocean background conditions of different years (2008-2013) have little effect on the typhoon track, but it will have a great impact on the intensity. The results show that the typhoon intensity simulated by the two-way coupling condition relative to other coupling conditions is more consistent with the observed data. In addition, the oceanic background environment in different years has a great impact on the typhoon intensity. Although the experiments are slightly different, the ocean environment in 2010 is more conducive to typhoon development. This result shows that under the same atmospheric conditions, Haiyan will probably be stronger in 2010 than the actual Haiyan in 2013, which means that even if Haiyan is already a very strong super strong station, it will be greatly enhanced. This study show that the NECC (North Equatorial Counter Current) transports heat into the development region of the Haiyan typhoon when the current northward shifts. The additional heat source provided by this horizontal advection that favors the development of the Haiyan typhoon.
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海燕颱風, COAWST, 海氣耦合, 北赤道反流, Typhoon Haiyan, COAWST, Air-Sea Interaction, NECC