臺灣地區家庭旅運動態及燃油消費結構分析

Abstract

This paper presents a feasible vehicle fuel demand model for passenger road transportation with the purpose of having an overall understanding of the pansenger trip dynamic situation, the characteristics and structures of vehicle fuel consumption. A National Household Travel Behavior and Energy Consumption Survey (1985, Dec. – 1986, March) proceeded first, then considering the related historical data, a BREAK-DOWN conceptual scheme was constructed to have a through analysis of different modes separately, an impact study for introducing a mass transit system in the Taipei metropolitan area was also included. In summary, we adopted some social research and multivariate statistical techniques to improve the understanding of the travel behaviors and the fuel consumption process; also by taking the ARIMA model and some econometric approaches, the short-term and long-term forecast of fuel demand for different modes can be established concerned with socio-economic attributes. It was postulated that since this model was proven to be useful and acceptable in practical case study in Taiwan, one of many developing countries in the world, we can take it as a reference for concerned study in the future by further modification and improvement.