選舉對中國分析師盈餘預測影響之探究

Abstract

財務分析師擁有專業知識，是金融市場的資訊中介者，其盈餘預測對投資者決策有著重大影響。本研究旨在檢視省級人大代表選舉前與選舉後3個月，省屬分析師是否會受到地方政府官員影響，傾向對同省份的企業發布相對樂觀盈餘預測。本研究亦檢視省級人大代表選舉後第4個月至第9個月，省屬分析師是否傾向對同省企業發布相對悲觀的盈餘預測。本研究發現，在省級人大代表選舉前，相較於總部設於該省的民營證券公司分析師，省屬分析師會對同省份的省屬國有企業發布相對樂觀的盈餘預測。然而，針對總部設於同一省的民營企業，以及在省級人大代表選舉後的期間，相較於總部設於該省的民營證券公司分析師，省屬分析師盈餘預測偏頗並未有顯著差異。Financial analysts have professional knowledge and are information intermediaries in the financial market. Earnings forecasts have a significant impact on investor decision-making. This study aims to examine whether provincial analysts influenced by local government officials tend to issue relatively optimistic earnings forecasts for companies in the same province before and three months after the election of provincial People's Congress representatives. This study also examines whether provincial analysts tend to issue relatively pessimistic earnings forecasts for companies in the same province from the fourth to the ninth month after the election of provincial People's Congress representatives. This study finds that before the election of provincial People's Congress representatives, provincial analysts issue relatively optimistic earnings forecasts for provincial state-owned enterprises in the same province compared with analysts of private securities companies headquartered there. However, for private companies headquartered in the same province and the period after the election of provincial People's Congress representatives, there is no evidence that provincial analysts' earnings forecasts are significantly biased compared to analysts of private securities companies headquartered in that province.