臺灣貪污判決的政治分析（2011-2014）
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2015
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Abstract
2014 年林益世案一審判決出爐「輕判」，引發輿論譁然，「黨證
說」甚囂塵上，即「持國民黨黨證可保貪污平安」，與昔年「法院是
國民黨的」論調相近。為回答「政治人物黨籍是否影響法院輕重判」
與「政治人物職位是否影響法院輕重判」之問題，本研究即運用
2011-2014 年之地方法院判決書為資料，以自然語言處理技術擷取關
鍵字，並以卡方檢定與多項式羅吉斯迴歸分析進行檢測，發現政黨因
素與職位因素皆無顯著。此若以派系政治角度分析，說明國民黨已無
法有效掌控地方法院，地方派系仍大多屬國民黨籍應為志願交換關係
下的結果，進一步將資料中，具黨中央關聯之四位被告比較，能發現
國民黨被告皆屬輕判，此應為「法院為國民黨的」印象來源，而法官
量刑基準不一致引發之「司法不公」觀感強化了該印象。
In 2014, the First Instance judgement of the Lin Yi-Shih (a KMT party member and the secretary-general of the Executive Yuan ) corruption case caused a public outrage over its lenient sentence. The speculation of using membership card as shield to the criminal investigation has reintroduced the notion that the judicial system is “owned” by the KMT in the past. This research is intended to explore that “when political figures committed crimes, would the party they joined affect to their sentencing” and “would their position in the government affect their sentencing.” This research is based on the judgement of the district courts from 2011 to 2014, using natural language processing (NLP) to capture keywords. Examine these keywords with Pearson's chi-squared test and multiple logistic regression analysis. The results indicated that the political party and government position has no significant effects in these judgements, which shows that the KMT can no longer influence the district courts’ judgement. The reason that local fraction is still loyal to KMT may be the result of voluntarily exchange of interest. A further analyze to the data indicated that four indicted crucial party member received lenient sentences, which resulted the notion that the judicial system is “owned” by the KMT, and the criterion for sentencing is varied by the judges induced unfair judgement which also enhanced such notion.
In 2014, the First Instance judgement of the Lin Yi-Shih (a KMT party member and the secretary-general of the Executive Yuan ) corruption case caused a public outrage over its lenient sentence. The speculation of using membership card as shield to the criminal investigation has reintroduced the notion that the judicial system is “owned” by the KMT in the past. This research is intended to explore that “when political figures committed crimes, would the party they joined affect to their sentencing” and “would their position in the government affect their sentencing.” This research is based on the judgement of the district courts from 2011 to 2014, using natural language processing (NLP) to capture keywords. Examine these keywords with Pearson's chi-squared test and multiple logistic regression analysis. The results indicated that the political party and government position has no significant effects in these judgements, which shows that the KMT can no longer influence the district courts’ judgement. The reason that local fraction is still loyal to KMT may be the result of voluntarily exchange of interest. A further analyze to the data indicated that four indicted crucial party member received lenient sentences, which resulted the notion that the judicial system is “owned” by the KMT, and the criterion for sentencing is varied by the judges induced unfair judgement which also enhanced such notion.
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Keywords
貪污, 判決書, 輕重判, corruption, judgment, lenient sentence