應用迴歸分析探究林口新市鎮捷運站周邊建成環境特性對捷運通勤流量的影響

Abstract

多數國家主要以興建都市軌道運輸如捷運，並提出相關策略提升搭乘量作為緩解交通壅塞的方式。其中，策略之一為透過整合交通運輸與土地利用的規劃，進而引導或鼓勵民眾增加使用大眾運輸的機會。然而，針對林口新市鎮的交通壅塞問題，仍未有研究以土地利用相關的建成因素探討其與捷運流量的關係。因此，本研究試圖調查林口新市鎮內三個捷運站之服務區域的土地利用，藉由過往研究提出的建成環境4D架構，分別為土地利用之密度、多樣性、設計與至運輸場站的距離，以界定建成環境變數，探究其對早高峰捷運通勤流量的影響為何。本研究使用桃園捷運運量資料與公車電子票證資料獲取捷運進站流量與轉乘捷運流量，並使用開放資料取得捷運站與轉乘人流來源地之公車站的行人服務區域內相關的建成環境數據，透過多元迴歸分析建立桃捷三站整體與分站的OLS模型，藉此探討整體的建成環境之影響因素，以及各站的建成環境特性。研究結果表明，密度與多樣性構面無法顯著提升早高峰的捷運流量；設計構面之十字路口數和人行道面積則對早高峰流量有顯著正向影響；至運輸場站的距離之構面反映公車轉乘服務對桃捷A8站和桃捷A9站的重要性。有關各站建成環境特性的部分，由於桃捷A7站周邊土地正處開發階段，屬於具發展潛力的捷運站，可多關注街道的連通性與步行空間的規劃。直達車停靠與鄰近醫院的桃捷A8站，具有通勤和醫療旅次的流量特性，屬多功能複合型的捷運站，可著重設計構面進行改善評估。在桃捷A9站則是特別發現到，密度之住宅土地面積和通勤人口數與該站流量呈顯著正向關係，顯示桃捷A9站屬於較典型通勤功能的捷運站，可將住宅用地與街道連通性作為規劃考量重點。上述的研究成果，可提供未來林口新市鎮發展大眾運輸相關的建成環境開發作為參考，以鼓勵通勤者於早高峰時段搭乘捷運。

The development of mass rapid transit (MRT) in urban areas has become an important public transit policy in many countries because it helps the increase of ridership and alleviates traffic congestion. Many research focus on the integration of transportation facilities and land-use types to examine how the transit-oriented development encourages commuters to use public transportation for daily commuting. However, none of the existing studies discusses if constructions of the built environment at MRT stations could attract more ridership of MRT and ease traffic congestion in Linkou New Town, Taipei. Therefore, this study attempts to investigate how land-use types interact with the built environment around metro stations in Linkou New Town from the 4D perspectives, which are density, diversity, design, and distance. A variety of variables are categorized to the four groups and statistical analysis, including Ordinary least squares (OLS) analysis, is conducted to further represent how certain key variables play an essential role in the changes of ridership at each metro station. To highlight impacts of built environment, this study specifically focuses on the transit of commuting during morning peak hours.The traffic data collecting the boardings and intermodal transit trips which transferred between metro and bus were summed up from the Taoyuan Metro ridership data and the smart card data by Taipei Metro. Moreover, bus ridership data is used to measure the built environment within MRT and pedestrian catchment area (PCA) of bus stations. The study developed multiple regression models to analyze the relationship between transit ridership and the built environment, and explore the characteristics of the built environment at A7, A8 and A9 stations of Taoyuan Metro.The analytical results that the relationship between ridership and the built environment reflects different patterns under the 4D perspectives. First of all, there is no significantly positive impact on morning peak-hour boarding ridership with factors under the density and diversity dimensions. Secondly, the intersections and the sidewalk area within a station’s PCA are positively associated with morning peak-hour boarding ridership from the aspect of design. Lastly, the relationship between transit ridership and distance to transit variable reflects significant and positive signals and delivers the message that multi-modal transit is important to the analysis of built environment and ridership. Regarding to the characteristics of the built environment in the respective transit station areas, the surrounding environment of A7 station is still developing, because an vacant area near the A7 station is planned and constructed soon. To attract more people using A7 station, street connectivity and larger pedestrian space should be seriously considered. A8 station is a transit stop for express trains to Downtown Taipei, and an important medical center, Linkou Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, is nearby. Therefore, commuting and medical trips are the two main transit purposes at A8 station. These characteristics reflect that A8 station serves as the multi-functional MRT station. As a result, the design of footpaths, such as width and length, should be the mendotary task for the improvement of A8 station. Residential areas and the number of commuters within the PCA of A9 station are positively related to morning peak-hour boarding ridership. It implies that A9 station is the station with commuting functions. Planners can prioritize factors such as residential land and street connectivity to make more residents feel comfortable taking public transport. In summary, the analysis of built environment and ridership of MRT in Linkou New Town not only quantifies the influence of various physical factors on the use of MRT stations, but also provides some novel suggestions for the future planning of the built environment at MRT stations. The ultimate goal of this study is to help the development of better transit facilities and encourage more people willing to take public transport.