選舉對中國分析師盈餘預測影響之探究：以法制環境為調節變數

Abstract

根據既有研究可知，分析師發佈盈餘預測會受到不同因素影響而偏頗。本論文以法制環境為調節變數，檢視於省級人大代表選舉前及選舉後三個月，位於不同法制環境的省屬分析師對同省份的企業發布相對樂觀盈餘預測是否有所差異。本研究亦檢視省級人大代表選舉後第4個月至第9個月，位於不同法制環境省屬分析師對同省企業發佈相對悲觀盈餘預測是否有所差異。實證結果顯示，在省級人大代表選舉前，位於不同法制環境的省屬分析師對同省份的地方國企和總部設於同省民營企業，相較於總部設於該省民營分析師，並未發佈顯著的相對偏頗盈餘預測。在省級人大代表選舉後三個月亦有類似的實證結果；選舉後第4個月至第9個月，相較於總部設於該省民營分析師，位於不同法制環境省屬分析師對同省企業發佈相對悲觀盈餘預測並未有所差異。

According to prior research, different factors affect analysts' earnings forecasts and make them biased. This paper uses the legal environment as a moderator variable to examine whether provincial analysts in various legal environments differ in their relatively optimistic earnings forecasts for companies in the same province before and three months after the election of provincial People's Congress representatives. This study also examines whether there are differences in the relatively pessimistic earnings forecasts issued by provincial analysts in different legal environments for companies in the same province from the 4th to the 9th month after the election of provincial People's Congress deputies. Empirical results demonstrate that before the election of provincial People's Congress deputies, provincial analysts in different legal environments do not issue significantly relatively biased forecasts for local state-owned enterprises (SOE) and non-state-owned enterprises headquartered in the same province as analysts working in private securities headquartered in the same province. There are similar empirical results for the sample three months after the election of provincial People's Congress deputies. From the 4th to the 9th month after the election, compared with analysts working in private securities headquartered in the province, provincial analysts in provinces with different legal environments do not issue relatively pessimistic earnings forecasts.